Falling stock markets, even in China – some thoughts

Now that the stock markets worldwide are seeing a big correction, the Chinese stocks start following them. Finally. Over the past year I have watched in amazement what was happening in the market. Although not everybody agrees, I felt Chinese stocks were completely overvalued (mainly based on multiples). The main reason the prices kept going up, was because more and more people entered the market, blinded by the possibility of getting rich. People were putting their life savings in, without being aware of the fact that what goes up can also go down. As an economist with a major in corporate finance, I felt a bid sad watching the ignorant crowds on People’s Square on weekends, listening to investment experts with laptops showing off their profitable investment strategies. None of them ever heard of efficient markets, let alone the world bubble.

Shanghainese have the reputation of being very thrifty, but when it comes to the stock market they seemed to jump in without thinking twice. Once my driver started to invest in the market, I knew the bubble had to burst soon. I heard stories about retirees putting all their money in the market, and just last week I came across an article about Chinese students investing their university fees, instead of paying their tuition. How many more signs are needed to show that the market is overheated? But people kept investing.

I hope for the small Chinese investors that the markets will stabilize, although fundamentally there is still a big downward potential. Imagine what would happen if all these people would lose most of their savings, that could be a threat to China’s stability. For that reason I believed that the government might step in if prices would fall too quickly, in order to stabilize the economy. But now that the markets are following the markets outside China, I am not so sure anymore.

The main reason that China’s stock market went up so much over the past 2.5 years (about +450% right now, +600% early November at the top) is that Chinese can only invest in companies listed in China. Once the index started to climb in mid-2005 it was basically a self-fulfilling prophecy: people made money, bragged about it and others started to follow. There was no other place to invest in stock anyway, even Hong Kong shares are not available to mainland Chinese investors. Therefore valuations of companies in Hong Kong are very different from valuations of the same companies listed on a China exchange. And that’s also the risk: once investors start to pull out their money, others will follow. And then the ride can go downhill fast, because fundamentally the Shanghai stock exchange is still far overvalued.

I hope for the Chinese investors that there will be a bottom in the market soon, either based on perceived fundamentals or on people starting to buy back shares at lower prices. At that point the market could even start rising again, because most investors do not understand why markets move as they do. If people start to make profits, others might follow again. Maybe the Chinese government should start slowly open up investment opportunities outside China, to avoid a second China-only bubble.

Shanghai starts citywide Wi-Fi construction

China Tech News reports today that Shanghai (finally) started the construction of its city-wide Wi-Fi. It apparently took a bit longer than planned, because when it was announced 15 months ago I already blogged about it. The only problem is that they start in Jiading district, far from where I (and most other people) live and work. Why not start in the city center? I would assume more people would use it there. Probably a political reason, or they first want to test it in a low population density area.

Another thing that puzzles me, is that they will cover the area with just 200 to 300 base stations. Jiading District has a size of about 450 square km with half a million inhabitants. I am not an expert in this field, but for such a large area a few hundred base stations does not seem to be enough. Or are they using WiMAX technology, but calling it Wi-Fi? Whatever it is, it is good news, and at least we will have wireless internet during this year’s Formula One race (which is in Jiading District).

By the way, Shanghai is not the only city in China that is planning wireless internet. Next to Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Wuhan, Hangzhou and Shenzhen have also set up their own plans for city-wide Wi-Fi construction.

BestBuy getting better

A couple of weeks ago I blogged about a video camera that I bought at BestBuy in Shanghai. It was an out-of-the-box camera, meaning that the box had been opened, and therefore I got a small discount. However, that same evening I found that the camera was not new, but had been used for several months already. I went back to the store, and they offered me a new camera for the discounted out-of-the-box price. Things seemed to be settled, except for the fact that the camera was suddenly out of stock. They would check when new stock would come in and call me in a few days.

Well, I waited a few days, but no phone call. After a week I decided to go to the store again to check myself. The camera was still on display, so I checked with one of the sales man. He had no idea what I was talking about, but he helped me to track down the guy who had helped me the first time. This guy was talking on his mobile phone with his back to the waiting customers (he seems to be always on the phone when I go to BestBuy), but hung up quickly when his fellow sales man acknowledged him of my presence. I asked him when the model would be restocked, and he told me the model was out of production and would not be sold anymore…

So I asked him why he had not called me. His answer was that he ‘just found out’. Right, that sounds very believable. So I asked him what would happen now. He had no idea of course, but I can’t blame him for that as he is probably not in a decision-making position. Another sales man then came over (who spoke good English), and he was a bit more helpful. At first he offered me to buy a more expensive model at a discounted price, but I told him that after this experience I did not want to spend any additional money, because this was not my fault. He then offered to talk to his manager to resolve the issue, and get back to me soon.

I have to admit that at this point I told him that I am a blogger and also involved with Tudou, and that I would not hesitate to put a video about my negative experience online. I don’t like to use this kind of ‘power’, but I got so sick and tired of the way Best Buy had treated me, that I felt this might be a way to get a solution. The sales people knew Tudou very well of course, and my strategy seemed to help. Already few hours later I got a phone call from BestBuy, giving me the option of a) returning my camera and getting not only my money back but an additional payment for what had happened, or b) they would try to find my model camera somewhere else in China, and if that would not work give me a better camera without additional payment.

Because I wanted to have a camera and not money, I went for option b), and a couple of days ago BestBuy called again. They told me they did not find the same model, and they would give me a better Sony handycam. I went back to the store this week, where of course the staff had no idea what I was talking about. The sales person told me nobody can return a camera after 2 weeks, and certainly not swap it for a more expensive one. I told him to look in his computer, but he told me the information would not be in there. Sigh… Luckily after a few minutes one of the other staff recognized me, and he explained the situation to the others. Of course the information was in the computer, but the sales guy was probably too lazy to look in there. Anyway, I now have a good (and new) camera. It’s a bit bigger than the original one, but the specs are a lot better. Thanks BestBuy, it took some time, which is something I have grown used to in China, but in the end the problem has been solved.

Olympic Committee makes it difficult to get opening & closing ceremony tickets

I was one of the lucky ones who won a ticket for the closing ceremony of the Beijing Olympics. Because the Beijing Olympic Committee wants to make sure these ticket cannot be sold over the black market, the ticket will bear your name on it. Last week I already received a phone call to check my personal data for the tickets (if you changed your phone number in the past 9 months you probably have bad luck, because they cannot reach you). I thought it was a spam call, because the caller started asking right away what my passport number is in very bad English. I almost hung up on the lady!

Today I received an email with instructions on what to do to get these tickets. Luckily it did not end up in my spam filter, because then I might not have seen it on time. The procedure is almost ridiculous. You first have to fill out a form with all your personal details (they already have all these details online, but OK). Then you have to put a picture on it that has been taken after August 2006 (No kidding, how do they plan to check this? Why not just say a recent picture?). You have to make a ‘duplicated copy’ of your passport (I assume this means two copies). Then you have to go a branch of the Bank of China in person between January 15 and 31 with these forms and your original ID. You can name a trustee to go in your place, but then you have to sign a letter of trust first.

Now what if you are on vacation or on a business trip for the next two weeks, or just see the email too late? Bad luck, the mail says that in that case ‘the organizers are entitled to deprive the buyer of his tickets’. Is nobody thinking before sending out such a mass email? Wouldn’t it be normal to give ticket buyers at least a couple of weeks notice? It reminds me a bit of the disaster with the ticket sales in October where nobody seemed to be thinking ahead either.

I certainly hope the Organizing Committee is better at organizing the actual Olympic Games than at organizing the ticket sales.

Update (Jan. 22): My assistant went to the Bank of China to hand in my application today, but it was rejected! Two reason: I had to fill it in with an ink pen, not a ballpoint… (no mention of that of course in the application form, so I suppose more people will have that problem). Furthermore, I made a mistake in one letter and crossed it out, that was also not allowed. Typical Chinese bureaucracy, I hate it. But what can you do?

Spill Group Asia gets game.asia and games.asia

Good domain names are important when you are in the internet business. Especially names that are easy to remember and names that make sure that you end up high in search engine results. I was therefore very happy to get the confirmation that Spill Group Asia has managed to obtain among others the domain names game.asia and games.asia.

The .Asia domain is a new top level domain, just like the .eu domains in Europe last year. In order to get these domain names we had to write a detailed proposal about what we will do with these domains (as part of the Pioneer Domains Program), and it turns out that ours was the best. We will now start developing sites specifically for these domains. A good start of the new year for Spill Group Asia!

Ho-Pin Tung in 2008 GP2 and his own racing game

Last week the Dutch-Chinese race car driver Ho-Pin Tung announced that he will race in both the Asian GP2 and the European GP2 for the Trident team. That means he will participate in a total of 31 races in 2008! Spill Group Asia would like to congratulate Ho-Pin Tung, and wish him lots of success during the 2008 season. We are also very happy to see our main Chinese website game.com.cn on his official 2008 helmet! Ho-Pin, we hope to see you in our office again the next time you are in Shanghai.
Coincidentally, this weekend Spill Group launched a Ho-Pin Tung flash race game on all of its worldwide portals. It’s a free racing game (all our games are for free), in which you can not only race a total of 7 cups with high scores, but even create your own race track. Quite a difficult game actually, at least for me: I played it several times over the past days but I did not manage to win once. If you want to give it a try, the English version can be found here, and the Chinese version is here.

Coincidence: Buick Lacrosse recall

My current car is a Buick Lacrosse, less than 2 years old and of course Made in China (actually even Made in Shanghai). A great car, both to drive yourself and with a driver – with controls for everything on the middle console in the backseat. Never had any big problems with it, but that’s probably logical with such a new car and if you drive less than 10.000 km per year.

Until a week ago, that is. On New Year’s Day I drove with my parents through the French Concession behind a taxi. We approached a traffic light that was green, and which turned orange when we were about 50 meters away from it. The taxi was even closer to the light, so I assumed he would speed up and drive through. Wrong. He suddenly braked, and I had to make an emergency stop to avoid hitting him. And that’s when I realized that my brakes did not work well. I did not drive fast, but the car did not slow down fast either. It sort of skidded from left to right and the brakes made strange sounds. I had to steer my car into the other lane, where there was luckily no traffic, in order to avoid hitting the taxi. Scary, but nothing happened.

I decided to tell my driver about it so he could go to the workshop to get my brakes checked, but forgot about it. To my surprise my wife called me two days later, telling me that there was a recall for all Buick Lacrosse cars because of possible brake failure. Seriously, I do not make this up. I never had any problems, and two days after I notice there is a problem we get a phone call from our dealer to bring the car in for exactly that problem. A pure coincidence. I am glad the emergency brake situation did not happen at higher speeds at a more dangerous location. My car will be repaired as soon as possible, that’s for sure.

Naughty Family hospital


Sometimes you see signs in China where you really wonder what is going on inside. Sometimes you don’t even want to know. My dad snapped this picture the other day: The Naughty Family Veterinary Hospital….

A baby changes your life!

Scott is 9 days old now, and in these 9 days my life has changed quite a bit. The most difficult thing right now is that he wakes up about 3 times per night. Just knowing that you will wake up 3 times already makes me sleep bad, and I don’t think this is something I can get used to easily. Last night (on a Friday) I went to bed before 10 PM already! I don’t think that has ever happened in the past 25 years, except when I was jetlagged or sick.

During the week I even went home once for lunch to play with Scott, and I on Thursday I went home at 5 PM already to spend some time with him. He is still so small, and I really miss him during the day. I am even considering to put a live webcam at his bed, so I can look at him whenever I want. And no, I won’t put the webcam’s address online.

It’s just great to see how quickly he develops. Especially the first days you really see changes in his behavior, he can already do so much more than a week ago. This morning Scott was trying to climb on my chest (not successful of course), and later he fell asleep there. That is such an incredible experience, I feel such a bond with him now already.

Priorities change a lot with such a small boy around. Instead of going for sports in the morning I want to spend time with Scott, and also for blogging I did not make much time. I was actually too tired for sports as well (lack of sleep) and during my usual blogging time (later in the evening) I was in bed already. I think this will change soon, I have to get used to this new rhythm of life.

In case you’re not too much into kids (like I was until a very short time ago), no worries. I did write mainly about Scott in the past week, but very soon my topics will cover other areas as well again. Having a baby is just too overwhelming, you will understand if you have a kid yourself or if you should ever get a baby. Thanks for you patience 🙂