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The Perfect Storm: Why Bitcoin at $10,000 in 2020 is different from Bitcoin at $10,000 in 2017

Tonight I was walking along the Vancouver Sea Wall, something I do regularly these days. Just walking at a fast face (6-7 km/h) while watching the sea, the boats, the waves, and the occasional seal popping up, but mainly thinking through new ideas. I was feeling a bit anxious, which is unusual for me, so I tried to figure out why I was feeling that way. Suddenly I realized it is because of Bitcoin, not because of its recent performance (BTC is up 45% over the past 6 weeks) but because I realized we are finally at the point where Bitcoin is ready to break out. Let me explain.

Last Friday (6 days ago since I am writing this) Bitcoin broke through $10,000, an important psychological barrier for many investors. I was at a dinner party with friends while watching the Bitcoin price. During the beginning of the dinner I was more focused on the price than on the conversations (my bad…) and I actually managed to screen shot the exact moment when Bitcoin hit $10,000.

Of course the topic changed to Bitcoin right away (most of the people had some exposure to Bitcoin already) and I explained why this was an important moment for crypto. Not because Bitcoin would never go below $10K again (it actually dipped to $9850 a few days later), but because this was the first time that Bitcoin traded over $10K while I felt it was priced correctly. Breaking through $10K at the current fundamentals and at high volumes means $20K this year is suddenly very likely and my predictions of at least $100-200K per Bitcoin in a few years seem more and more likely.

During the past days I was more focused on non-crypto investments and new business ventures so I did not really take the time to put my thoughts on this together. But while walking I realized my mind had already done the work for me. So I am just going to type my thoughts into a blog post.

In 2017 BTC went up to an all time high of almost $20,000, but what people forget is that the ‘race’ from $10,000 to $20,000 lasted for just over a week and $14,000 to $20,000 happened in just 2 days. Hardly anybody bought or sold above the current price, meaning that today’s price of $10,000+ is actually quite similar to an all time high.

I remember that on December 6, 2017 we were on a Hut 8 road show on Wall Street and that we could not believe what was happening to Bitcoin when we checked our phones during investor presentations. Late afternoon after our presentations were finished, Mike Novogratz invited us to fly back to Toronto on his private jet and during the flight we mainly kept on checking our phones instead of enjoying the food and drinks. I think we hit $16,000 while in the air and I have to give it to Mike that he called the top at that point. He said it was time to start taking profits, something I was not so sure about yet at that point.

The next day I was speaking at a GMP conference in Toronto and I was literally checking the price while I was on stage (and announcing to the audience that the price had gone up a $1000 to $18,0000 while I still on stage). Looking back I should have realized it was crazy and could not continue like this. It was indeed not sustainable and not long after that the Bitcoin price started to crash hard.

Today is very different though. 2017 was mainly a retail investor market, but most of these investors have left the market since. They did not really understand what they were investing in so they either sold at a loss or totally forgot about their investment. 2020 is different, I feel the current bull market is led by institutions and family offices. Well-informed investors that invest because they see Bitcoin as a potential store of value in volatile times. They were not in the market in late 2017 because they were either not allowed to be in it yet (e.g. there were no approved custodians) or because they did not know how to invest in Bitcoin. We have come a long way since then, but it’s still not easy to buy and hold Bitoin (one reason why we are very far from a new top). The narrative has changed though and many people start to see Bitcoin as a real new asset class.

One important factor is that there is finally a model to value Bitcoin. When Sean and I did a roadshow all over Canada for the FBC Bitcoin Trust in September 2017 we always made the comparison to Gold, explaining that if Bitcoin would just become a store of value and its market cap would be just be 10% of Gold, the price would be $50,000-60,000 (this is based on today’s BTC market cap of below $200B, while Gold is worth over $8 Trillion). I also explained the value of Bitcoin as a potential currency, and the value of the Bitcoin blockchain as the most secure database on earth, that would make Bitcoin even more valuable, but most people did not understand it. They wanted to see a model.

And now there is one, the stock to flow model, developed by fellow Dutchman Plan B (who wants to remain anonymous). The model is based on scarcity of Bitcoin and it can be used to calculate future Bitcoin prices. So far it hold up very well and it predicts a Bitcoin price of at least $50,000 next year and possibly up to $100,000. From there it keeps on going up to $1 million by 2028-29. Wishful thinking? Maybe, but 7 years ago Bitcoin was a factor 100 lower than now, so it could easily go up another factor 100 in the next 7 years. Many people have been trying to falsify the model, but so far nobody has managed, which is a very strong signal for me.

The title of this post is The Perfect Storm because I believe the world is heading into the wrong direction at the same time that Bitcoin is becoming more prominent. First of all because of the Coronavirus (another topic I should write about soon). In 2017 it was not clear what BTC was going to be: a currency, a store of value or something else. Right now BTC has shown a couple of times that it seems to be mainly a store of value (it still might have other functions in the future as well). The Coronavirus might be the catalyst for a new crisis.

China has literally come to a complete stand still. People can’t leave their homes (or don’t want to, even if they can), most stores and restaurants are closed and the retail economy has come to a stand still. But even more important, factories are closed and will remain closed for the foreseeable future. This means that supply chains all over the world will be disrupted soon. Even if your product only has one small part sourced from China you won’t be able to build your product. People in North America and Europe don’t see the effects yet and it’s actually hard to believe for me that it’s still business as usual here. But I believe that will change fast and it may be the Black Swan event that will lead to a major stock market crash. When that happens it could lead people to invest in Bitcoin as a safe haven, meaning a potential huge spike in the Bitcoin price.

Even if the Coronavirus won’t be as bad as I think it is, we still have the problem that many countries have so much debt that they will never be able to repay it. Whatever you call it or whatever it is, quantitative easing, repo short-term lending or simply printing money, the effects are all the same. This is not sustainable. The powers that be want the current state to last as long as possible, because they make tons of money. But it won’t last. The corona virus could be the nail in the coffin that will lead the financial markets to collapse. But even if it is not, something else will happen soon that will push Bitcoin as a safe have investment.

In 2017 the crypto bull market was led by retail investors, but not many are still in the market. However, they are quickly coming back. I can see it on Twitter where I suddenly have a lot more Bitcoin conversations than just a few weeks ago. I can see it in the altcoin markets, where coins that in my opinion have zero value suddenly go up with double digit percentages. And the emails start coming in again from people that want to buy large amounts of BTC. Something is happening, I can feel it. And I guess that’s where my anxiousness came from. I want to be behind my laptop knowing what is happening in the markets and being part of it. But walking the Seawall is probably more healthy and a better use of my time for an hour per day.

During Bitcoin’s past 7 years I have only felt twice like this. Once in October 2013 when I was a partner in a venture capital fund and I literally had no interest in looking at new companies simply because I believed putting money into BTC would lead to much better returns (too bad I did not follow my gut feeling, this was when Bitcoin just broke through $100, two months later it hit $1000). The next time was in early 2017 when Bitcoin started its new bull run from $1000 to almost $20,000 and I felt BTC was finally more or less de-risked.

Now it’s February 2020, Bitcoin trades at just over $10,000 and it seems stronger than ever. The mining reward halving is coming up (which cuts supply by 50%, meaning a potential doubling of the BTC price), governments seem to be okay with Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining, and the Stock to Flow model predicts a 5-10X price increase before the end of 2021. The financial markets are at unsustainable all-time highs, a virus is threatening the world, and climate change is slowing but surely making the world a much worse place to live. It seems like a perfect storm to me and it may be time for Bitcoin to make its next big move.

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I survived a three-day water fast

I am in the home stretch of a 3-day water fast, I stopped eating 68 hours ago (I only have 4 hours to go!) and did not have any food since then. I stayed hydrated by drinking 3-4 liters of water per day and only had one black coffee every day (zero calories). Was it easy? No, but it was a very good experience.

I have been doing intermittent fasting (IF) on and off for years and it starts to feel normal to me. I now generally eat all my food within a 6-8 hour window every day, meaning I only consume calories between 12:30 pm and 7:30 pm pm the next day. Sometimes I even only eat between 6-8 pm, but I also have regular cheat days (mainly on weekends and holidays, or when traveling) where I eat a light breakfast and when I drink a few glasses of wine at night.

I feel great doing it and I can now easily run 15 km in the morning without eating anything first. The main reason I started intermittent fasting is because it’s healthy and it has been neglected too long. Big pharma wants to sell you medicine to heal you, instead of making sure you don’t get sick in the first place. I did tons of research before doing my first experiments with time restricted eating, and I found that not having 3 meals a day can actually improve your health significantly. Evolutionary, 3 meals a day certainly was not the standard, so it’s not surprising that our bodies are not fully adjusted to our new nutritional standards.

For example, fasting for 16-18 hours per day significantly reduces your blood sugar levels, especially when you combine it with exercise. By lowering your insulin resistance you decrease your risk of getting diabetes, which is more and more important with our regular sugar, carb and highly processed food filled diets. IF may actually reverse Type 2 Diabetes. It also reduces inflammation in the body, which is very important given that many diseases (including some cancers) are caused by chronic inflammation.

For me IF works well, it’s an easy diet to follow and it actually makes you more aware of the foods that you eat. I don’t mindlessly snack anymore on days that I follow IF and I appreciate my first meal of the day a lot more than I used to. Drinking tea or coffee in the morning actually tastes a lot better when you are fasting than when you had food already.

Because I read so much about health and nutrition I often came across water fasts. To be honest, I dismissed these fasting diets for a long time. I do not go on a diet to lose weight and I always assumed that that was the main reason people did them. It turns out that’s not correct, although weight loss certainly plays a role (I lost 2 kg in the past 2 days simply because I didn’t consume any calories) the main reason to do multi-day water fast is to reset your immune system and to put your body into autophagy.

What does that mean? Basically, when your body does not get any nutrition it starts to clean out damaged cells, in order to regenerate newer, healthier cells. It also puts your body into deep ketosis (the state that you are in when you don’t eat any carbs for an extended period of time), so it starts to burn its own fat. Your glucose levels go down rapidly and after about 72 hours all the glucose stored in your body has been consumed. A 3-day (or longer) water fast basically resets your immune system. Studies have shown that cancer patients who do a 3-day water fast before chemotherapy reported a higher tolerance to chemotherapy, fewer chemotherapy-related side effects, and higher energy levels. This is a significant finding that convinced me that water fasts may be hard to do, but that the long term gains are so important that they are worth the short term pain.

Autophagy may actually prevent cancers by destroying the cells before they can grow and spread. Even though I am quite healthy (knock wood, praise Murphy) I want to stay that way as well, and preventive medicine is very important to me. Three day fasting also activates stem cells of the immune system to renew and repair themselves. It not only reduces damage to cells, it also replenishes white blood cells and replaces damaged ones. All in all sufficient reason for me to give this a try.

On Tuesday this week (it’s Friday when I am writing this) I had a regular intermittent fasting day. I had a light lunch followed by a small dinner (salmon and asparagus, no carbs), and after that I decided to stop eating until the weekend would start. The first evening was easy of course, because I normally don’t eat or drink much at night. The next morning was business as usual as well, because I normally don’t eat breakfast. Around 3 pm I started to feel a bit hungry however, so I decided to go for a 30 minute run. That went well and my hunger was gone. I had a slight headache though so I decided to have one cup of coffee and that did the trick. Although I drink a lot of coffee, I normally can go without caffeine for a day or 2 without any problems, but in combination with long fasting I think my body was craving for coffee.

At night I only drank water and I was worried that I would get so hungry that I would not be able to sleep. But that was not the case. Of course I did feel hungry, but I was more tired than usual (likely because I did not eat). So when I went to bed I did not even read for 30-60 minutes like I usually do but fell asleep almost right away. The next morning I woke up full of energy. I had a great, deep sleep, much better than usual. It was full of dreams, more than usual I feel. And I did not wake up once during the night, which surprised me (I tend to wake up at least once or twice every night and then stay awake for a while).

Because of a blizzard I had to clean both my boat and my driveway, which kept me busy during most of the morning. After that I worked for a couple of hours and I felt I could concentrate much better than before. I did not really feel hungry anymore, but I started to miss eating. I was thinking about food literally all the time, something I never really do. I noticed food when reading a book or when watching TV and I felt a bit jealous that other people could eat but I could not.

Then around 5 pm my energy was suddenly completely gone, I literally had to sit down. I had planned to go for a run, but I realized I could not do it. For a minute I thought I should just push through and get on the treadmill (too much snow to run outside) but because this is my first 3-day fast I wasn’t sure what would happen. I actually felt a bit dizzy and did not want to pass out on the treadmill. So I put myself in front of the fire place with a great book (How To Change Your Mind, What the new science of psychedelics teaches us about consciousness, dying, addiction, depression and transcendence by Micheal Pollan) and a litre of carbonated water. That helped a bit, but I felt tired for the rest of the night. I did not feel hungry though although sometimes I had a short (1 minute) craving for food. I watched a show on Netflix in bed but was too tired to really enjoy it and fell asleep quickly.

I again had a pretty good sleep. I woke up once but instead of thinking about work or other things, I could easily relax and fell asleep right away again. But in the morning I realized I still had no energy. I could hardly get myself out of bed. I also felt cold, something that had started the day before already when I suddenly had very cold feet. But because it was the last day of the fast I did not care too much. I did some emails and realized I could not concentrate as well as I usually can. I then decided to study Chinese characters for an hour, but I gave up after 10 minutes. I was not able to focus on it and I seemed to forget characters that I would have remembered in a normal situation.

So around lunch time I decided to just write a blog post about my experiences – and that’s what I am doing now. I still have a few hours to go before I can slowly start eating again and my plan was to just spend those hours with a book in front of the fireplace. However, while writing this post I start to feel my energy coming back. It’s a strange experience, as if my body is coming out of a deep sleep and all of a sudden it is awake. I read that in 7-day fasts (which you should not do without medical supervision), day 4-6 are generally much easier than the first 3 days, so maybe I am getting into that stage right now.

Although I am not hungry at all anymore I still look forward to eating something again later. I actually brush my teeth a few times per day just to feel toothpaste in my mouth. I will likely start with a light chicken broth, a salad and maybe an egg. If my stomach can handle that I plan to grill a steak and some veggies later at night. If I feel well tomorrow morning I plan a light breakfast (no intermittent fasting for me for the next couple of days), maybe a quick lunch (I have a 4 hour meeting Saturday afternoon) and then a dinner party with friends tomorrow night.

Generally I feel happy that I did this experiment. It’s interesting to get to know your body better. And it’s great to know that if needed I can quite easily go without food for a while (I hope I never need it though!). I have to say that it was harder than I had expected. Because of IF I knew I can easily set aside thoughts of food, but I had not expected to hit a wall after 48 hours of fasting. Maybe my glucose ran out by then already and I started to be in full ketosis? I guess I should have measured it, but it’s too late now. I do know that my current ketone level is 8 mmo/l, which is MUCH higher than most people who are in full ketosis (they are between 1.5 and 3 mmo/l).

Will I do this again? Yes, I probably will. I like a bit of a challenge and this is a relatively easy one (a full marathon is much harder). But because I had no energy left over the past 24 hours I am thinking of doing a 5-day fasting mimicking diet first. It should lead to similar results, but because you still eat about 700 calories a day you will likely feel a lot more energized. If I do so I will write another blog about it.

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Disrupting education

Earlier this year I received the International Honoree Award from Beta Gamma Sigma, the academic honor society for the best students at top business schools all over the world. According to Beta Gamma Sigma I received the award “in recognition of advancing the ideas of our Society through outstanding business and managerial leadership”. I was really happy with this, and even more so after I saw others who had won this award over the last years: among others the CEO of Xerox, the CEO of KPMG, and even the President and CEO of Proctor & Gamble.

As part of the award ceremony I was invited to give a keynote speech at the AACSB Annual Meeting in Edinburgh, Scotland. At that meeting deans of accredited business schools from all over the world were discussing the topic of “challenging your core foundations”. I was asked to discuss in my keynote the topic of challenging your core foundations as well. So when preparing for it I thought it might be interesting to use my entrepreneurial experience and tell them what I would do if I would start a business school from scratch.

The best way get an audience of up to 1500 business school deans to listen is to shock them a bit. So I told them that I believe the current business school model is outdated and ready for some serious disruption. Especially in the US the cost of an MBA is extremely high and potential big profits attract new incumbents. MBA schools would have to challenge their core foundations in order to stay relevant in a world that is changing very fast.

My ideas were based on a scalable education that would be at least 80% cheaper than the average US MBA. Some of the strategies that I talked about on stage included having a (mainly) online MBA with a few offline locations in strategic and/or exotic locations and meet-ups all over the world. Not with a campus the middle of expensive New York City, Paris or London, but in a more secluded and cheaper location (like INSEAD’s campus in Fontainebleau). A location that people like to go to sometimes and where professors like to teach temporarily (somewhere in the Caribbean for example).

I would not be hiring full-time (expensive) professors, but I would invite top professors to give lectures in a Virtual Reality environment and record these, so the recording would be VR as well. A lecture series could be used for several years or could be updated every now and then. Harvard has been using this for their CS50 course for a few years already, so this is not a new concept. By having small high tech campuses in nice locations it might help to attract professors or other guest lecturers.

The next step would be to develop Artificial Intelligence tutors that would get to know the student and his/her strengths and weaknesses, and that would teach and explain the student exactly what he/she needs to learn. The result would be highly personalized learning using both top professors and AI tutors. Setting it up might not be cheap, but once it’s up and running it will keep on improving itself through reinforced learning, and overheads would be much lower than regular MBA classes.

Another important step would be branding, which is quite important in the MBA world. I would approach this by emphasizing that the MBA is completely different from any other education: it would be global, it would use VR, it would use AI, and it would be much cheaper than any other MBA (I would aim for a price tag that would be at least 80% lower than similar educations).

If I would go into EdTech (which I am not planning to do) I believe a model like this could work. But that’s not why I talked about it of course, my aim was to wake people up to the fact that the world is changing and you have to adapt to survive and thrive. Hopefully it will have made some deans think critically about their programs, but I am not sure. The MBA industry seems to be stuck in the past and that’s why I decided to post some of my ideas here as well. Maybe it can inspire others? If you’re inspired by this take a look at the Lambda School as well, they are using a similar disruptive model to teach coding.

As a side note, during this conference I also did a couple of interviews. Two were published on the AACSB website and I found them on YouTube as well. This one is about teaching an entrepreneurial mindset:

And this interview is about smart investing:

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Why China’s new digital currency could quickly become a global currency

China announced recently that it will launch its own digital currency based on the Chinese renminbi, probably with its own centralized blockchain. The currency might launch in early 2020 already and I believe it could be much bigger than just a China domestic payment system.

China, like many other countries, wants to control the way its citizens pay for goods and services, so that’s an important incentive to launch a digital currency. Cash is hardly used anymore in China, even beggars now use QR codes to receive digital money. However, the current digital payments are not run by the state, but managed by private companies Tencent (WeChat Pay) and Alibaba (Alipay). WeChat has over 1 billion users and Alipay has 1.2 billion users, meaning that if China would use their platforms it will be much easier to roll out a state-owned digital currency.


WeChat Pay and Alipay signs in the T&T supermarket in Vancouver

I believe China may have something bigger in mind, however. Until about a week ago non-Chinese residents could not use WeChat Pay or Alipay in China, simply because you needed a Chinese bank account or Chinese credit or debit card. All of a sudden this changed: first Alipay announced that foreigners could now prepay money into their Alipay account and 2 days later WeChat announced that you can now link non-Chinese credit cards to WeChat. Coincidence? I don’t think so. I believe the government pushed (or allowed?) them to start adding non-Chinese customers in an effort to make WeChat and Alipay more international.

For a while you could pay in some stores in Vancouver with WeChat or Alipay already, but it seems the 2 payments giants are now actively pushing this payment method and they are coordinating their efforts. I noticed large signs in stores promoting payments with WeChat or Alibaba, and I was surprised to see that even Canada Post has this payment option already. This means that Chinese when traveling abroad won’t have to change money anymore, but they can keep on using RMB. Nor do they need to use credit cards, they can simply use the same apps as they are using in China. Obviously merchants like it as well, because they don’t have to pay the 2-3% credit card fee. A very smart idea to slowly get the Chinese RMB accepted as payment outside China.


Canada Post accepts WeChat Pay and Alipay

I don’t think Vancouver, or North America in general, is important yet to these two payment methods. Most likely WeChat and Alipay are looking to roll out their services in countries where the financial system is not so well developed yet, such as Africa or parts of Asia. Those markets are relatively easy to conquer because people are used to cash and most don’t have bank accounts.

The game changer will be that China might integrate its new digital currency with WeChat and Alipay. Once they do that their domestic digital currency could suddenly become a digital currency for large parts of the world. And once it gets a good reception in parts of Africa and Asia it will automatically expand to other parts of the world, simply because people demand to use it. I think it’s a brilliant strategy, especially because so many people outside China already use WeChat for communication and it has a digital wallet built in.

The US has been so focused on stopping Facebook-coin Libra that they may have overlooked the risk of China doing something similar. By stopping Libra they may have shot themselves in the foot: if the US would have embraced Libra they could have been in the same position (by using WhatsApp to roll out internationally a Libra coin based on the US dollar), but because they tried to stop innovation they may now lose out in the upcoming digital currency wars. I don’t think Libra will be allowed to launch in the US any time soon, so China can move full speed ahead.

And what does this mean for Bitcoin? Just like when Libra was announced I think the effect of a Chinese digital currency will likely be positive. Simply because it introduces more people to crypto: once you have used a cryptocurrency and have a wallet on your phone, the step to using Bitcoin will be a lot smaller. We don’t know much about the Chinese digital currency yet and whether it will be supported by external wallets, but if that’s the case they sky will be the limit. Because if other wallets can also hold the Chinese digital currency, people could change it for Bitcoin and hold it in the same wallet! That probably seems a bit far fetched right now given the capital controls in China, but if they allow customers to spend RMB outside China already they may also allow them to change some of it to Bitcoin. Time will tell, but for sure there are interesting times in crypto land ahead!

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Will we stop the climate crisis? I now have serious doubts.

After working on climate catastrophe solutions and investments for the past year or so I have come to the conclusion that what we are doing is not going to make any difference. The grassroots movement and Greta Thunberg mean really well, but it won’t make a difference. We need extreme global solutions right now (banning cars and banning flying for example), anything less won’t be enough. Let me explain why I have become so negative.

To start, I still believe we can stop and turn around climate change. But we have to move very fast because time is running out. And more important, we have to make huge global decisions that will be very painful for all of us. And that’s what the biggest problem is.

People are not willing to make sacrifices for the climate, simply because they don’t see the big picture or because they feel others should make changes first. I have seen it during the Canadian elections last month where many people felt that Canada should keep on using its natural resources to create jobs and prosperity. They feel other countries should take steps first. The problem is that people in these other countries say the same thing, they all want others to take action first. Arguments about jobs are so short sighted: yes, you can keep a few more jobs for now, but the future cost of those jobs will be so much higher of the temporary wealth they create. Once we get to the point of no return these jobs will be gone (probably long before that already) but the additional burden they have created will not go away anymore.

A few weeks ago I went to a Greta Thunberg rally in Vancouver. I was really excited about it and felt stoked about being part of it. But the event had the opposite effect on me and I felt it was depressing. I realized that the people in the climate change movement are the wrong ones to force a change. Not only was the organization of the demonstration terrible (speakers were hardly visible from the crowds, the speeches lasted way too long and were all similar), but instead of trying to be an inclusive group of people they were actively trying to exclude other groups. I fully agree with them on stopping the oil pipelines, but why combine that point in a speech with supporting the staff of the hotels in Vancouver that were on strike? Keep these issues separate, they are completely unrelated. The same with the support for the demonstrations in Chile that came up a few times in speeches, they are unrelated. Even though I feel sympathy for both the hotel staff on strike and the demonstrators in Chile, I feel they just don’t belong in a climate crisis march.

You need to rally as much people behind you as possible, by excluding others on issues that are not related you don’t do that. The people at the event did not seem like the ones that can make a change in the world, but they did not seem to realize it themselves. It made me feel a bit depressed to be honest. I thought Greta Thunberg was doing a great job until I saw her in action. I highly respect what she is doing, but she is not a very likeable person and I don’t think these climate strikes will make any difference. The grassroots movement may think they are changing the world, but they are not. They are just not the right people to make the change and they won’t get the right people on board with this kind of events.

The only thing that can save us are extreme global measures, things that might seem over the top until it is too late. Once we hit a level of about 450 ppm of CO2 in the air we will get into an unstoppable cycle that will make the current climate crisis seem a like a minor nuisance. At that point the effect of the melting permafrost will lead to methane being released into the air, something that will have catastrophic effects. We have to do everything we can to stay below 450 ppm. At the current rate we will get there by 2030, at which point it will simply be too late to do anything.

That means taking drastic global measures to cut CO2. What kind of measures? I believe the only way to save the planet is to immediately ban flying, to ban fossil fuel cars, and to reduce meat consumption by a large percentage. Sounds crazy? Yes, but if we don’t do it the effects on the planet will be so much worse that we would wish that we would have taken these measures when there still was time.

It will be very painful if we can’t fly anymore. Of course all the airlines will be out of business and hundreds of thousands of people will be out of their jobs right away, but we have no choice! We need to change our lifestyles and we will have to be forced to change them. Voluntarily we won’t do it. The same is true for fossil fuel engines in cars. We will need to make the switch to a different kind of transportation, most likely (shared) electric vehicles in the short run or potentially even autonomous vehicles. I am sure this will lead to new innovations very quickly (fully electric planes with much longer ranges for example), innovations to come out with products that are currently not economically feasible. The same for eating meat, there are simple and cheap solutions to drastically reduce the methane belching of cows (adding a bit of seaweed to their feed or to the water they drink), but there is no real economic incentive to implement it.

We have to make a transition to 100% renewable energy in a few years, while taking out as much CO2 as possible, for example through technological solutions like carbon sequestration. We need to change our lifestyles to a slower kind of life. No more flying to a holiday summer destination, but going there by train or other cleaner modes of transportation. Crossing an ocean might mean taking a boat. Or maybe Elon Musk’s hyperloop trains will be the solution to intercontinental travel. Things will take more time, but is that really a big problem? In the short term yes, but we will get used to it very fast. The Internet, virtual reality and free global communications make it a lot easier to achieve this than it would have been 20 years ago. It will impact me a lot more than most people, but I am willing to sacrifice this.

Of course I realize that the world will not come together to do this until time has run out. Partly because some people do not believe in the climate crisis (most will eventually, but by then then it will be too late), but mostly because people don’t realize how close we are to a complete catastrophe. A democracy seems like the best political system to most people in the West, but it is not fit to solve problems like this in time. I believe yuou actually need unelected (but smart and humane) leaders to be able to get things done, like in a corporate environment. Leaders that are respected by the people they represent, but that do not have to work on their re-election every 4 years or so.

Because of all of this I have come to the conclusion that we might as well party like it’s 1999, because we won’t come together and fight the approaching disaster. The grassroots movement is not going to make a difference. We need global measures to force people to change their lifestyles 100%. Not just by buying carbon credits to offset their emissions, but by completely stopping their emissions. It’s sad, but it seems to be the reality. For a while I thought I could make a change but except for creating awareness and investing in new technologies I just don’t see that it will have enough impact. We will need a global political force willing to make very painful decisions and we will need that right now. Unfortunately we are further away from that now than we have been in a long time.

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Climate change: flooding at the Annapolis Boat Show


Last week I spent a few days on the US east coast, among others visiting the Annapolis Boat Show. I had never been there, but because it is the largest sailboat show in North America I wanted to check out some of the new boats. It also gave me the chance to meet up with some of the round-the-world sailors that I have been following on YouTube and/or that I support on Patreon, such as SV Delos, Sailing Doodles, Sailing La Vagabonde and 59 North.

During the first day of the boat show I noticed that a water main had broken next to the Fleet Reserve Club and the Annapolis Waterfront Hotel, and that the road was partially flooded. When I came back a few hours later it seemed a lot worse, but because there were now police cars parked at the flooding I assumed they would be able to quickly solve the problem.


The next day I was at an event with among others Brian and Brady from SV Delos, when someone asked them a question about how climate change was changing ocean sailing and the sailing routes. The answer was interesting, it seems that the ocean sailing routes that have been used for over a century are suddenly not optimal anymore because currents and winds are changing. Sailors that still follow them take 50% more time to cross the Atlantic than others who create their own routes based on new weather and ocean current data. Then someone mentioned that the flooding in Annapolis was also related to climate change. I thought, flooding? And then I realized that what I had seen the day before was not caused by a broken water pipe but it was the Chesapeake Bay water that had risen.


I went back to the boat show and was surprised to see how far the water had come up in the mean time. Many exhibitors could not be reached, simply because of the water. I did a quick Google search and found that this was indeed partly related to climate change. One article mentioned that flooding on the east coast is up 50-75% since 2000, and that in 2017 there had been 63 days with flooding in Annapolis!


Click here for a link to the article 

But most people seemed to dismiss it, saying the flooding was just due to a hurricane that passed by in combination with high tides. I am sure that was an important reason for the floods, but when I read some of the comments on sailor’s forums, people were saying that the extend of the flooding was unusual and that in the past this never used to happen. My take is that of course there were unusual circumstances, but that without climate change it would not have been this bad.


I talked to a number of people at the show but hardly anybody saw it as a serious issue. People did not seem to consider that it could be the beginning of something that will hit many more cities over the coming years and decades. And that is the scary thing, people are like frogs in a pot of water that slowly starts to boil. The frogs don’t realize it until it’s too late.


Flooding is not normal but soon it might be the new normal. Politicians are not doing enough to stop the climate crisis and grassroots movements do not have sufficient power to make a real change. We still have time to stop the climate catastrophe if we act now, but I am getting less confident every day that we will be in time to avoid the consequences. Be prepared…


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Could the US be on the brink of a civil war?

The gap between the richest and the poorest in society has grown fast over the past decades. I remember traveling in the south of France in the early 2000s and when you would see a superyacht at anchor you would point it out. But when I was on the French Riviera last week I saw superyachts literally everywhere. And not just ’smaller’ ones of 30-40 meters, but also many with a length above 100 meters and a helicopters on deck. Maybe it was partially due to the Monaco Yacht Show, but to me this is a clear sign that the super rich have gotten a lot richer over the past decades, while incomes for the bottom 50% have only gone down in real terms.

This is a scary development that can’t continue like this. Why? When people need to have 2 jobs just to survive (unusual in Europe, but not uncommon in the US) and feel left behind, they will eventually revolt against this. That can take a long time because someone needs to take the lead in that revolution, but that person may actually be Trump.

For a long time my thinking was that if Trump would not get reelected in 2020 he would fight it, because he needs it to be reelected to stay out of jail. The most likely scenario would be that he would accuse the ‘deep state’ of rigging the election and then using Fox News and Twitter to stir the masses to fight for him. Trump would make his supporters feel wronged by the liberals, telling them they are trying to ‘take their freedoms away’ just like he is now already doing day in and day out on Twitter.

Many of the gun carriers in the US are Trump supporters and the situation could very quickly get out of hand. And if it would not get out of hand by itself, Trump’s enablers like Steve Bannon might not mind helping to get the situation to get out of control. Remember Steve Bannon and his obsession with the Fourth Turning? That’s not a coincidence of course. If Trump would not be reelected, this could literally go from a war of words to an emerging civil war in a matter of weeks.

The election is still over a year from now and a lot could happen in that time, so I did not give it too much thought so far. However, the fact that Trump might (finally) be impeached could accelerate these events. Trump is now already fighting it and using ‘his’ media to fight for him and accuse the Democrats of anything he can think of. And worse, he indicated on Twitter that if he gets impeached this could lead to a civil war. The fact that a sitting president says that is a very scary thing and it shows it is on his mind. Suddenly a potential civil war could be much closer than many believe.

You may think that everything is fine in your life, so it won’t affect you. You may go for a walk in the park, in the woods or just on a quiet street in your town and believe that a civil war would never happen where you live. But don’t underestimate how quickly things can change. Lots of people are fed up with the situation in the world and hope that chaos might be a good thing to give them a better life. Farfetched? Read this article about populism and you may change your opinion.

I see it on Twitter, the discussions seem to have become a lot more heated there. Not just about Trump, but also about climate change, and about the financial system (printing money to save the current system, bashing Bitcoin etc.). I personally feel things are getting out of hand and Trump is only pushing that. The USA seems to be more divisive than ever and I am genuinely worried that if an impeachment would be successful Trump would use his populist skills to start a civil war.

I hope I am wrong, but I just can’t imagine that Trump would quietly go away and risk ending up in jail after he left the Presidency. Maybe it can be avoided if he gets a non-prosecution deal, but I have my doubts. He and his enablers may have a lot more to gain from chaos than from keeping the status quo. Like I said in a recent post, be prepared.

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Being prepared

Last week I finally started watching The Handmaid’s Tale, after reading the book a few years ago. I was blown away by the series, it’s one of the best series I have seen in recent years, both in terms of camera work and the story line. The drama series shows an alternate reality, in which a totalitarian regime based on fundamental religious views takes over the US. The story takes place around 2016, a few years after faked terrorist attacks allowed the government to radically change its laws and create a new country (Gilead) in which women are second-class citizens, who are not allowed to work or even read. A public security system with spies (‘Eyes’) was set up and people can get arrested for minor things and get publicly executed. The story goes much deeper, but this is the basic structure of society.

One reason the series is so good, is because I realize this is not just fiction but something that could happen in reality. In a way Gilead is an exaggerated version of Trump’s America. What Trump is doing with fake news is done in Gilead at a much bigger scale (season 2 makes that clear when June is hiding in the now closed offices of The Boston Globe). It’s not unthinkable that Trump and his GOP enablers would try to turn America into a kind of Gilead, the signs are there if you look for them (polarizing and dividing society (“us against them”), creating fear among the masses, mass surveillance). It has been done before, even in recent history: look at East Germany after WWII, China during the Cultural Revolution, North Korea right now (and Trump admires Kim Jong Un!), or what ISIS is trying to create in the name of religion.

The thing is, it seems most people don’t want to see. They live their lives as if it’s business as usual, just as in the Handmaid’s Tale. The series shows flashbacks in which you learn how the US changed within a short period from a normal society to a dystopian one. Just like frogs don’t realize they are slowly dying when you put them in water and slowly turn up the temperature, people in the Handmaid’s Tale don’t realize what is happening until it is too late. When they still had time to prepare (=flee) they did not do it. Women were suddenly not allowed to work anymore, but people still stayed around. The signs were all there but most people just lived live as if this would blow over. People were not prepared for what was going to happen.

Guess what? The same is happening right now in the world. To me it has been clear for years that the financial system is not sustainable. Fiat currencies are being debased by printing money and interest rates have dropped below zero in parts of the world so governments can finance their huge debts. We are living in a huge bubble, a bubble that pushes up stock prices (the printed money has to be invested somewhere) and that allows us to live our lives in luxury just a little bit longer.

But it won’t last, the bubble will eventually burst. And then we are in big trouble. People will lose their jobs, pensions and investments, and we will get into a huge recession. Governments could in theory stop this by going back to some kind of gold standard, but they are not doing that because they are addicted to printing money to finance their deficits. So you have to be prepared yourself, get out of fiat currency as much as possible and buy assets that will go up in value when the markets start to crash (gold, silver, and if you are smart of course cryptocurrency). Most people won’t do it, they don’t see that the water around them is starting to boil until they are caught in it and can’t get out anymore.

The climate crisis is another example where people keep on living life as if we are not heading for the end of a cliff. Over the past couple of months I have become much more pessimistic about how this is going to end (just like Jonathan Franzen in the New Yorker…). The world does not seem to wake up even though it is probably too late already. Yes, there will be a climate strike and yes there will be new IPCC goals, but it feels like too little too late. Maybe carbon sequestration or other new technologies can still save us, but time is running out fast. Most people don’t seem to be preparing for this while there is still time. Look at Grand Bahama, people are actually starting to rebuild there… Next year it will probably be business as usual there again – until the next big hurricane hits.

History repeats itself. Even though people know rationally that something bad will happen they will not be prepared for the consequences. People know it but don’t want to see it. Because their friends and neighbours are not doing anything they don’t do anything either. Until it’s too late.

Be prepared!

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Melatonin and jet lag

One of the biggest downsides of flying a lot is the constant jet lag. Even though I try to fly much less than I used to do (mainly because of climate change), I normally still have at least one intercontinental trip per month to either Europe or Asia. From Vancouver to Europe that means a 9 hour time difference and in China it’s 15 hours earlier than here. Over the years I have developed strategies to deal with that (such eating at specific times, doing sports before departure or upon arrival, alcohol or no alcohol on the plane, and the number of hours I sleep on the plane), but it remains a challenge to quickly get over jet lag.

Over the years I heard a lot about melatonin as a solution for jet lag, but I never gave it a try. I always saw melatonin as a kind of sleeping pill and I just never want to take medicine when I am healthy. But about a year ago I was talking to a medical doctor about my travel schedule and he told me to take a closer look at melatonin instead of just dismissing it. Well, when a doctor recommends it I might as well give it a try I thought.

So I bought some at Vancouver airport at the start of my next trip and took 3 mg a few hours after take off to China. I did not really believe in it to be honest, but I was proven wrong quickly. I got sleepy about half an hour after taking a pill and then managed to sleep for about 4 hours, waking up feeling great. I worked a bit during the remaining few hours of the flight and did not feel drowsy at all. I still had a business dinner that night and felt tired of course, but managed to stay awake. When I got to my hotel I took another melatonin and again slept for about 3-4 hours. Perfect!

Since then I am taking melatonin after (and depending on the flight also during) every single long distance flight and it works well for me. Especially for eastbound flights, where you travel against the time so you will have to go to sleep while your body clock thinks it’s afternoon, it’s a great solution. Melatonin makes me sleepy and I get at least 3 hours of sleep after it. In case I wake up very early (say at 2 or 3 am) I sometimes take another melatonin to fall asleep again and that works for me.

I wish I had tried this before. I spent so many jet lagged nights reading books or doing emails, followed by daylight hours where I needed literally liters of coffee to stay awake. Melatonin is the answer to this! It’s a natural hormone that makes you feel sleepy, but that is not addictive (sleeping pills are). Just knowing that you’ll get a decent night of sleep helps a lot already.

For me the dose of melatonin that I take does not make much of a difference. I have played around with 3 mg, 5 mg and 10 mg pills, but the effect seems similar to me. I always sleep about 3-4 hours and even higher doses don’t make me feel sleepy after I wake up. I have tried different brands, but also there I don’t notice a difference.

Generally I am now over most of my jet lag in 2-3 days, even for 12 hour jet lags, instead of 5 or more days in the past. And during those 2-3 days I normally get a decent sleep as well, although it is generally shorter than it should have been. I am much more productive and generally feel a lot better after a long flight.

If you travel regularly across multiple time zones you should really give this a try. Maybe there is some placebo effect involved, but for me it has been a huge help. Most pharmacies in North America and Asia carry melatonin over the counter and you should be able to buy it on most airports as well.