I never really believed in New Year’s Resolutions. However, last year I did make some and kept reminding myself about them every month, and it actually worked pretty well. Because of that I read over 50 books this year and I spent 6-7 weeks sailing on my boat (mostly offshore). So I decided to make some new resolutions for the coming year and will send them to myself as a reminder every month. Most are personal (related to health, sports and friends/family) and I won’t write about them publicly. But some are business related so I share them here, so friends know what I will change and focus on this year.

Focus on AI
My main ‘public’ resolution is that I plan to focus almost completely on AI in 2026. Over the past year I already spent a lot of time on AI, but I feel I keep falling behind. Everything goes so fast that you need to do it almost full-time. New LLMs come out every day, there are new vibe coding packages all the time and I can’t count the number opf agentic AI tools that I come across every week. I want to try all the latest software and tools and understand what is possible, and how they could impact our lives and my investments.

Vibe coding and AI video
My initial focus will be on vibe coding and on creating videos. I have only dipped my toe into the vibe coding waters so far, but I want to become an expert in 2026, for example to create my own personalised software and to automate more things in my life. I also want to understand better how I can create videos, not just funny personal ones like you see them all over YouTube and TikTok, but also videos based on stories that I write. I believe in a few years most long-form video will be created in AI, after starting off with online video 20 years ago I would like to see if I can be part of that.

I will likely start with vibe coding videos on DeepLearning.AI and then I will do some of the online Stanford AI courses that are available on YouTube. But for Stanford I will likely have to start with refreshing my math skills (calculus and linear algebra), so that I can really understand what’s going on under the neural networks hood. I look forward to this deep dive, but also to keeping up to date with the latest trends in AI. I think it will help me to become a better investor in the space as well.

My equity portfolio
With regards to public equity investing, I now have my portfolio in place for the next couple of years. My main public investments consist of GOOG, GLXY, IBIT, BSOL, BMNR, and of course TSLA. My resolution is not to make many changes to it, unless something big happens that requires an adjustment. Or unless my AI knowledge will give me new insights into what the world will look like in 2-3 years. For now I think this portfolio is pretty much future-proof, so I will have more time to spend on AI.

Stepping down from my businesses
The last big resolution is that I will step down from most of the companies that I am involved in, although I will keep advisory roles. This process I already started in 2025, and this wil free up more time for AI and for personal endeavours. It doesn’t mean I won’t start new businesses anymore in the future, but if I would start a new business it will likely be a business run on AI.

I look forward to the new year ahead, I wish you all a happy 2026!

I have been an investor in Bitcoin for almost 13 years. It changed my life, my views on money and society, and on how I invest. But in the past year I sold almost all my BTC and I do not plan to hold any self-custodied crypto in the future anymore. This is not a rage-quit like some OGs have done in the past, but a practical move. I know I will likely get some criticism because of writing this, but it’s something I have thought long and hard about, and something I have finalised already.

With regards to this being a practical move, a large part of the proceeds actually went straight back into Bitcoin exposure through spot ETFs such as IBIT. The logic is simple: I can borrow against ETF shares easily and at better terms with my current, mostly non-EU, brokers. For me moving into IBIT has been cheaper and more straightforward than borrowing against self-custodied BTC. Yes, more banks now offer crypto-backed loans, I have talked to some of them and also used it with a Swiss bank. But in practice the rates, LTVs, operational friction and reporting still favor something like IBIT in my setup. I hate paperwork and I like clean statements, ETFs make that part easy.

The other reason is diversification. For more than a decade I was almost all-in on Bitcoin or Bitcoin related products. That worked really well, but it also boxed me in. The world is changing fast and I want a broader portfolio that can benefit from what I call ‘AI eating everything’.

So I shifted more into public equity. I wrote a bit about this in the summer of 2024 already, when I took a position in Tesla (the Tesla share price has roughly doubled since I wrote the post). I am still a huge believer in Tesla and it is now my biggest public equity position. But just having Tesla and IBIT is not enough diversification for me anymore, so I also started buying Google this year. Not just for their AI strategy (in my opinion they became the new leader of AI this year), but also because I want some exposure to Quantum Computing. Google is much further with QC than the general public realises. I am also invested in 2 nuclear fusion companies (both held privately), because I believe that fusion may change the future of energy and may help to mitigate climate change. Next to that I am invested in some Bitcoin and Ethereum Treasury Companies, leading ones that I believe will outperform their underlying assets (both private and public entities). This is not a complicated strategy, it is simply concentrated exposure to the platforms I think will matter most in the 2030s.

A third change is what I do with some of the gains. I started giving back more through charity. I prefer to do this quietly, either anonymously or through a company, so I will not go into detail here. I want to do more of this over the next couple of years, especially in education projects and in places where I spend a lot of my time. I will likely not talk about it much publicly, and please do not approach me with projects. 

As I have said here before, I believe we are heading for a very difficult time, with most people losing their jobs because of AI over the next decade. AI is great for investors, but horrible for people making money from their labour. It’s not something we can stop, we are past the point of no return. 

As much as I love AI, I also believe that we created a monster. A monster that we can’t control anymore. Governments won’t be able to help you if you lose your job or income, because their tax base will start to evaporate labour income goes down. Maybe the time of big governments ruling the world is over soon, but that’s a topic for another time. Whether that will happen or not, I think we may have to go back to a situation where the wealthy will have to give back to society in order to save it. 

Am I still a Bitcoin believer? Absolutely. It will likely outperform almost any investment over the next 10-15 years. But the world around Bitcoin has changed: BTC is no longer just an outsider asset, it is now part of the financial system. You may not like that, but just like with AI you can’t stop it, so I adapt to it. To me that means keeping exposure to Bitcoin, using the rails and tooling that exist, and redeploying capital into areas with asymmetric upside outside of Bitcoin. It also means thinking more about impact than about pure maximalism.

As always, this is not investment advice, it is simply how I am positioning after 13 years in Bitcoin. I know I am not the only one. I know several of my ‘early-BTC’ friends have done similar things over the past 2 years since the BTC ETFs came out, switching to IBIT but also diversifying to other asset classes. 

If AI shrinks the job market and tax revenues fall, survival may depend less on the state and more on the people right next to you.

I had a call today with a friend in Latin America, and we were talking about a man he knows who receives a pension of 20 dollars a month. That’s not a typo. There aren’t many formal jobs, and the government doesn’t really take care of people. Yet life goes on. People lean on friends and family. They share food, pass around small jobs, sit in the shade, listen to music, nap, gossip, love. It’s not the Western script for a “good life,” but it is a life. And many seem, if not wealthy, at least unburdened by the constant grind.

That conversation got me thinking about our near future. What happens in 10-15 years if automation and AI eliminate a large percentage of jobs? What happens when tax revenues fall because fewer people work, or because mobile capital and talent keep outrunning higher rates? What happens when governments can only offer a subsistence income, or even that becomes hard?

The Western social contract may not work anymore

The Western social contract quietly assumes three things: most adults have paid work, governments can tax those wages and profits, and in exchange the state provides a safety net. But if employment shrinks and the tax base erodes, the math stops working. You can raise taxes on “the rich” and many will cheer, but the wealthy are also the most mobile. They move jurisdictions, restructure assets, or simply stop realizing taxable income. You can try to catch them, and some governments will try hard, but chasing the base tends to shrink the base.

Even if higher taxes “worked,” the numbers likely wouldn’t cover a generous universal basic income. I’m in favor of UBI in theory, but I’m against pretending that we can make it work based on tax once AI starts taking over most jobs. If the pie isn’t growing and the slice-takers get better at leaving the table, there’s less to redistribute. Meanwhile trust in government falls, especially as fiat purchasing power keeps leaking away and services decline.

A preview from the Global South

Parts of Latin America already live in a low-state, high-community equilibrium. There’s less formal employment, less reliable public service, and more dependence on your immediate network. It isn’t all sunshine (crime and instability are real) but there’s also an unexpected abundance: of time, of relationships, and of improvisation. People trade favors, share meals, raise kids together, and find meaning outside career ladders.

We might be headed for a version of that. Not identical, but rhyming. As the state’s role shrinks, the tribe’s role expands. “Tribe” here isn’t an online fan club. It’s your family, your close friends, your neighbours, your church or club. It’s the people who will pick you up from the hospital, lend you tools, watch your kids, and tell you when you’re being stupid. In a world where institutions become slower and thinner, the local and the personal get faster and thicker.

Less government power, more personal responsibility

I don’t think we’re headed for apocalypse. I think we’re headed for uneven abundance. AI will make goods and services much cheaper and better, but the distribution of income will be very different, and the old funding model for the welfare state will wobble. Governments will try to do more with less, but they’ll also try to tax more from fewer. Some will overreach, some will reform, but on average their relative power will decline.

That means we need to re-learn habits our grandparents took for granted: build community, share resources, fix things, grow things, teach each other, keep an eye out for one another. In affluent countries we’ve let the state do that for us. If the state can’t, we either rebuild those muscles or we will become very lonely.

Practical steps I’m thinking about

• Invest in people, not just assets. Treat relationships like compounding capital. Show up before you need help.
• Build a local mesh. Know your neighbours. Join (or start) a small group — a church circle, sports club, parents group, makerspace.
• Diversify jurisdictions and money. Don’t rely on a single tax system or currency. Keep some optionality (and privacy) where lawful.
• Learn useful, tradable skills. From basic repairs and cooking to AI-assisted craftsmanship. Skills are always useful.
• Reduce dependency. Lower your fixed costs, grow a bit of food if you can, keep some emergency supplies, and document your critical knowledge.
• Give first. The best insurance in a low-trust world is to make yourself high-trust. Be the person others want in their tribe.

If I’m wrong, nothing breaks

If governments pull off a miracle (strong growth, smart taxation, well-funded UBI, renewed trust) great. You still win: strong community, diversified risk, and real skills are assets in any scenario. But if I’m right (or even half right), then relying purely on large, distant institutions will feel riskier each year, and relying on the people you can actually call at 2 a.m. will feel like common sense.

The conversation with my friend was a reminder: many people already live in a world where the state is thin and the tribe is thick. They survive, and many find joy, not because they have more money, but because they have each other. As we move into an era of technological abundance and institutional scarcity, that may be the most important lesson for the West to learn.

PS: I’m not romanticizing poverty or chaos. I’m arguing for resilience and for rebuilding the human networks that let abundance actually feel abundant.

Note: I dictated this post to ChatGPT and it cleaned it up for me (it took out the repeats and things like ‘eh’, and it actually rephrased some sentences). Then I edited it myself, which took more time than I had expected. Not sure if I like the result better than writing a normal post: I feel when writing it on a laptop I tend to go deeper and add more detail. My sentences also tend to be much shorter when dictating. Maybe I need to just practice it a bit more?

On New Year’s Eve I was invited to a dinner party with some AI entrepreneurs and investors in Singapore. Of course the main topic was how fast AI had developed in 2024 and what would happen in 2025. We all agreed that 2025 would be a very interesting year – not just for AI, but also for crypto and for the direction the world is going.

In 2025 jobs will start to disappear

Although we certainly didn’t agree on everything, we all believe that in about ten years we could live in a world of abundance. However, the period until then will be a transition period that will be very hard for most people. During 2025, we will start to see that people are not able to find jobs anymore. Either people right out of university that can’t find work or people that get laid off and cannot find new jobs anymore. For example, I believe that anybody who is in law school right now will find it very hard to find a job at a law firm after graduation, because most entry-level jobs at law firms can now be done by AI agents. The same is true for consulting jobs. I believe 2025 will be the year where the first large firms will start implementing AI agents at scale. Anybody good at building AI agents and prompting them could make a killing this year.

When talking to a friend working at a large consulting firm last week, he told me that most clients are not interested to work with junior consultants anymore. They just want to work with the partners. They’re not willing to pay for juniors, simply because they can now do those tasks themselves with large language models and very soon with AI agents. If you’re a junior consultant, it will soon be very difficult to find a job right out of university. Clients, and therefore these firms, just want to work with experienced people. This is happening right now and in 2025 this is going to get worse. It starts with juniors, then it gets to middle-level consultants. In the end, I think most consulting firms might downsize by 80%, 90%. And maybe eventually, companies don’t even want to use human consulting companies anymore. A company like McKinsey could be run by AI agents with justs a few humans for social connections. Maybe that’s the next big thing, who knows?

Anyway, the problem is that these people that are laid off (or not hired in the first place) won’t have money. There is social security in many countries, at least in the Western world, but not in every country. And people that are laid off will certainly not be able to live their lives at the level that they were used to. That’s going to be a huge transition for many. I recently read a story on X about a Google Senior Director who had been laid off (something that happens regularly at these large firms). These can be $1M+ salary positions, and in the past it would be fairly easy to get a similar job with similar pay at another tech firm. But this person has been without a job for 9 months and wasn’t even able to get a job with a 70% pay cut. Of course there could be other reasons for this, but I start hearing more stories like this. I believe there is a trend here and that AI is behind it.

Preparing for social unrest

Because of these lay-offs, quite soon many of these people actually may not even be able to survive anymore.  What we are going to see is a lot of social unrest, potentially riots or even a civil war ‘against the rich and AI’. That is going to be a dangerous thing. At the NY Eve dinner party we mostly agreed that we have to be prepared for this. One of us said he is considering a move to Argentina over the next years to avoid the problems that will happen in the world. Another one was looking at living in a rural area in the north of the US, which I think is a good idea because I now think the US will do really well during this period (but you probably don’t want to be in the big cities there). There are a number of places where you could live more safely during the next 10 years to avoid the real problems in society.

Maybe we’re overcautious? Could be, but keep in mind that we are entrepreneurs and investors who spot future trends to make money, and we think you cannot be too prepared for this. I’ve never really been a prepper (except in the months before Covid hit, when nobody saw yet what was going to happen), but I’m getting to the point that I feel like we may have to somehow become a prepper to survive in the future.

A future of abundance

AI is going to hit us very soon. It has of course already been hitting us, but so far it was less visible. This year many people might for the first time realise that their life will be changing in a negative way because of AI. Eventually life will get better, but as mentioned it will take at least 10 years until we get to a society of abundance, a society where AI helps us to do most of the work and where humans can have a more relaxed life. Where we don’t have to work hard anymore, where we can have a lot more free time, and where most things will be (almost) free. So you won’t need a lot of money anymore to live a good life. Entertainment is already almost free. Things like Netflix or Prime Video don’t cost that much per month for basically all movies and TV shows in the world. YouTube has even more content and can be accessed for free with ads. I think transportation will be almost free because energy costs are going to be much lower than they currently are thanks to renewable energy and nuclear fusion. Because robots can build everything for us, including other robots, the production costs will go down tremendously. Humans will be able to live a very different and potentially very much better life than they currently can for hardly any money. So that’s a major difference. But the next decade could be very difficult.

Climate change will add to the problems

At the same time, what we’re seeing is that climate change is hitting us as well. And many people still don’t want to see what the effects of climate change are. The inability to look the problem in the face points towards a blind spot in human psychology that allowed this problem to form in the first place. They sort of feel like ‘it’s not that bad’ or ‘technology will solve it’. Well, technology certainly will solve a lot of it eventually. However, I think it might be too late. We are already at the point of no return or even past the point of no return. I often give the example that once you start to boil an egg, you cannot unboil it anymore. And that’s what we’re seeing with climate change as well. Lots of changes that have taken place over the past couple of years simply can’t be reversed and will lead to a planet that could be uninhabitable for much of humanity.

The combination of AI and climate change will lead to major changes. And I think many humans actually might not be able to survive the coming 10 years. Not just a few million, but potentially hundreds of millions or maybe even billions of people could not survive the changes. And this is going to be a very difficult period because of it. It’s hard to say how it will play out, there are simply too many variables that are difficult to predict. But I think if you do not prepare for this, you could be in serious trouble.

2025

For me, I look forward to 2025. It’s going to be a very interesting year for crypto and for AI. But it’s also going to be a difficult year for many people. So what I would tell everybody in the first week of this new year is to be positive, but be prepared. Make the right investments right now, both financially and with your time. Learn how to work with AI to help it improve your job so it will be safe for a bit longer. But also be prepared to lose your job and start creating side income streams. Things can change fast. I know that for many people  it’s difficult to move to another location. But it’s something you should keep in mind, because the world around you will be changing. If you are prepared, you will have a better chance of getting through this next decade and end up in a world of abundance. Hopefully I’m wrong. But if I’m not, it’s better that you know what might hit you than that it will all of a sudden happen without being prepared.

This weekend both Donald Trump and Robert F Kennedy spoke at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville. It was a huge moment for Bitcoin, it was the first time that US Presidential candidates talked about Bitcoin in public, and announcing ideas for a US strategic Bitcoin reserve.

This could have a huge impact on the Bitcoin price. It’s all about game theory: once one large nation states announces it will start buying Bitcoin, other nations states will immediately start doing this as well. Nobody wants to be first, but certainly nobody wants to be last. And when the US is first everyone wants to be at least second.

Because Bitcoin has a limited supply (only 450 new BTC are created per day, about $30M at current prices), the only way for these countries to get these coins is for others to sell them to them. This is different from Gold, where higher prices means that it’s now possible to mine at more expensive locations, so the Gold supply eventually will go up when the price goes up (and the market expects that, thereby capping the growth of the Gold price). Most people will not sell their Bitcoin if they see nation states are starting to buy (why sell today if you can sell for a higher price tomorrow?), leading to much higher prices.

How high? If the US would follow RFK’s plans it would mean that the US would buy more coins per day than are being mined. This would be ongoing for years to come. That would be the moment Bitcoin could go up hundreds of percent within a few months, simply because people won’t sell anymore. My expectation is that very soon other countries would follow (the longer they wait the more expensive it would be to build a Bitcoin reserve), meaning that Bitcoin could break $1 million within a year.

Neither Trump nor RFK are in office (yet), and even if they would be elected it’s the question whether they will follow through on their promises. But these speeches will have woken up other countries. Because of their announcements, talking about Bitcoin is suddenly something that won’t get you fired for anymore if you bring it up. On Sunday a Hong Kong politician announced that he will start looking at a strategic Bitcoin reserve for Hong Kong. A Dutch friend of mine (and a Bitcoin whale) has been working on a Dutch Bitcoin party idea for a while and he just posted about it. I am quite sure there are several other countries looking at a Bitcoin reserve idea right now, they have just not announced it yet.

Once the cat is out of the bag you can’t get it back in. When we will look back in a few years this weekend could have been the watershed moment for Bitcoin as a reserve asset for nation states. One of the reasons I started to invest in Bitcoin years ago was that I knew this moment would come one day. However, I am surprised to see how quickly it could now all of a sudden happen. My expectation was that this would start bottom up, with small countries like El Salvador (that has been buying BTC regularly for years) leading the way, not with the US as the main cheerleader for Bitcoin. There will be very interesting times ahead!

When you ask people what kind of company Tesla is, almost everyone will say it’s an Electric Vehicle company. The same is the case for Wall Street, most investors see and value Tesla as an EV business. I think they are wrong though. Right now most of Tesla’s revenues still come from the sale of EVs, but that is changing fast and within a few years selling EVs may just be a side business. In reality Tesla is an AI company disguised as an EV company.

The company is in the early stages of a complete transformation. As Elon put it a few weeks ago, they are not just writing a new chapter for Tesla but a completely new book. Because of that I believe the company is extremely undervalued and will be one of the best long term investments you can make right now. Once I realised how big of an opportunity there was I started investing in Tesla and I plan to keep adding to that investment. 

When I try to put a value on Tesla, I do that based on its upcoming Robotaxis, on the Optimus humanoid robot, and on its energy business. The sale of EVs is not relevant long term in my opinion, so I won’t even take that into account when calculating the potential future value of the company in this blog post.

Tesla Energy

The energy business will be important for Tesla and it could double or triple Tesla’s valuation over the next 3 years. Tesla produces Powerwalls (batteries for homes, sufficient to power a small home for one day) and Megapacks (large battery packs for industrial solutions). Because the demand for energy is growing extremely fast due to Generative AI, Tesla is doing very well in this sector. In Q2 they produced double the amount of battery storage from Q1 and they will keep on ramping this up in their Lathrop factory, with a new factory in Shanghai opening before the end of the year. I expect margins for the energy business to be potentially a lot higher than analysts expect, therefore I believe that the Q2 results (due on July 23) for Tesla Energy will turn out to be much better than expected, which might lead to another surge in the stock price. Because Wall Street only looks at the next 12-18 months and doesn’t really see the opportunity in Tesla’s long term plans yet, over the next 2 years Tesla Energy will be very important for the Tesla stock price, possibly even more important than the current EV production and sales. But in the long run most of the market cap will come from Robotaxi and Optimus. Therefore I will only focus on these 2 products in the rest of this post. I will explain what they are and what their potential is and what will likely happen to Tesla’s stock price. 

Robotaxi

I am convinced that the automotive world will change completely before the end of this decade. I think we will see a major shift from people owning their own cars to people using Robotaxis to get around. This will start in big cities where it’s hard to get around and where parking is expensive, but will quickly happen in smaller cities and more rural areas as well.

A Robotaxi is a fully autonomous electric vehicle that works likes an Uber, but without a driver. You will use an app to get one and there will be no interaction with any human beings etiher before or during the trip. The major difference with Uber or a taxi is that it will likely be 80%-90% cheaper. Nobody knows what the price per mile will be, it will likely depend on the location and on future competition. As an example, geo-fenced robotaxis in China currently charge less than $0.10 per kilometer. I don’t expect prices to be that low in the US, but over time it may happen. 

Many people don’t believe Robotaxis will be possible anytime soon, likely because they have not been following how quickly Fully Self Driving (FSD) has developed over the past years. Tesla self-driving systems have gone from an autopilot where a human being had to be at the steering wheel at all times, to an AI-based FSD where the car does everything for you and human intervention is not needed anymore. No other car companies come even close to what Tesla has built. Where regular drivers have an accident rate of about once every 200,000 miles, Tesla’s old FSD only gets into an accident once every 3.2 million miles. That’s an improvement of 16 times and it’s not even the latest FSD yet. Tesla got here by collecting all driving data for many years, but it also went from a rule-based system (“if A happens then you do B”) to a neural network that ’thinks’ like a human driver would think. That means you can drive anywhere, even in places where a Tesla has never been before. I would compare it to how Large Language Models like ChatGPT have changed the way we work and create content, that is the leap that Tesla has made in this field. You have to see it to believe it. Watch some YouTube videos if you are not convinced or even better, try it out by doing a test drive in a Tesla with FSD 12.4.

Having the best FSD is not sufficient to start a Robotaxi company though. You will need a huge network of cars to get started, the same problem that Uber faced when it launched. My assumption is that Elon will use his existing fleet of Tesla cars that have FSD installed for this. It basically means that anybody who owns a Tesla can use it as a Robotaxi and make additional money with it (depending on which assumptions you use a Tesla owner could potentially make $50,000 of profit per year, after Tesla gets a big cut). This will be a game changer, because cars that are used maybe 5% of the time could suddenly be used 50% or more. Suddenly Tesla vehicles will go up in price instead of depreciating over time. Uber could shut down right away, because no company with physical driver can compete against Tesla’s prices.

The next step will likely be a dedicated Robotaxi that Tesla will build. Nobody knows yet what it will look like, but it will probably be revealed later this year. Originally a Robotaxi presentation was planned for August 8, but it now seems that may not happen until October. My assumption is that it will be a 4 seater without a steering wheel, but that there may be other versions as well (a larger van or maybe even a future sleeping version). I believe that Tesla may not sell these vehicles to the public, but keeps them for its own fleet. In that way they can get 100% of the revenues that these vehicles make. 

The estimation is that by 2030 the global market for Robotaxis will be in the $8-10 trillion range. At this point Tesla has no real competion. Nobody else has FSD as advanced as Tesla’s and even existing players like Waymo (owned by Google) or Cruise (owned by GM) still have regular remote human intervention, even though the cars have no drivers on board. Waymo and Cruise are no competition for Tesla because they are geo-fenced, meaning they only operate well within a predefined area. Next to that no other competitor will likely be able to scale as fast as Tesla can. Because of that Tesla has a good chance to dominate this industry.

But let’s be conservative and assume that China’s car companies can scale as well and will be able to get to a similar vision-based neural network type of FSD. In that case Tesla will still have at least 10-20% global market share, meaning revenues of $1-2 trillion per year just for robotaxi. Given Tesla’s current P/S ratio this would mean a market cap of $10-20 trillion for the robotaxi businesss. The current market cap is only about $800 billion, so there will be a HUGE opportunity here.

Optimus

The Robotaxi business will be huge, but the biggest opportunity for Tesla will be its humanoid robot Optimus. I believe that we are seeing a new industry forming that will become the largest in the world – humanoid robots will transform how we make things and create a massive new industry. 

This week Elon Musk announced on X that Tesla will finish the design of its Optimus robot this year, so Optimus is something that will probably happen sooner rather than later. What is special about the Optimus is that it can basically learn to do anything that a human can do. So it’s not a specialised robot that can do just one thing, but you can teach it anything. You want a robot to clean your house or do the dishes? Optimus will be there for you. Don’t like to hang up the laundry? Optimus is ready to help. Do your kids need a tutor for their homework? Optimus can do that as well. Almost anything that we as humans can do Optimus will be able to to, and likely faster, better and longer than we can do it.

But not just household tasks, it can do any physical labour job that humans do as well. At a much lower cost than humans and for much longer periods of time. Factory workers might work 8 hours a day, Optimus can work 22 hours a day before it needs to recharge itself. Optimus won’t get bored if it needs to do the same job over and over again. And if a job is dangerous Optimus has no problem doing it. Security guards will soon be replaced by robots and I expect that wars will soon not be fought by human soldiers anymore. Firefighters don’t need to risk their lives, Optimus will do their work for them.

Optimus will completely change the way we live our lives. Almost any job can eventually be done by Optimus for a fraction of the cost of human beings, which will lead to huge deflation. That means that over time almost everything could become almost free. It will take some time to get there and I expect there to be a lot of chaos during that time, but we will eventually get to the other, much brighter, side. I don’t want to go into that in this blog post, but the dark side of mass unemployment and chaos is something we have to keep in mind when discussing robots. 

There are already a number of humanoid robot producers, with some humanoids already being sold to companies and doing real work. However, even though Tesla is not the first to market, I expect the company to dominate the sector, like they have done with electric vehicles. They have everything lined up for success: they have the batteries (Tesla Energy can produce them) and they know how to scale up production (something that many robot makers will struggle with). They have the AI models available for these robots and they have the data centers that are needed for the model pre-training and for the inference.

Just Optimus itself could catapult Tesla to the most valuable company in the world and make Elon the world’s first multi-trillionaire. If we would have 1 billion robots and these robots would earn a profit of $10,000 per year, and we would assume that Tesla would have 10% of this market, that would mean $1 trillion profit per year for Tesla annually. At a P/E ration of 25 the market cap of Tesla just because of Optimus would be $25 trillion. Likely there will be a lot more than 1 billion robots though, I actually expect that we will have more robots than human beings in a few years time. And possibly Tesla will have a market share of more than 10% of the market. It’s all speculation right now, but the point is that if they pull this off the stock price of Tesla will go up exponentially over the next couple of years. Based on the current valuation the stock price would go up at least 30 times, and that seems still very conservative to me. 

What’s next for Tesla?

If you follow robotics and AI closely like I have been doing, you might start to understand that Tesla could become the most valuable and most important company in the world. Elon has all the ingredients to pull this off, but the world doesn’t see it yet. That’s the real reason I am investing in Tesla. To me it feels similar to when I first had my Eureka moment with Bitcoin (11 years ago, when it was still below $100). Yes, there are many hurdles and many risks, but Elon has shown time and time again that he can pull things off that nobody else has been able to pull off. If he manages this it will make him incredibly rich, but also the many people that believe in him and that own Tesla shares. Wall Street doesn’t see it yet, even Cathie Woods (ARK Invest) has not put a valuation on Optimus yet. But once Wall Street will understand what’s going on the sky is the limit for Tesla. 

This is part 2 of this blog post, part 1 is here. If you are interested to follow Tesla more closely you could follow this Twitter list I put together. The list has been super valuable for me and it’s how I get most of my Tesla news. I also listen to a number of podcasts and YouTube channels, one of my favourites is Herbert Ong. If you want to go deeper into the Robotaxi check out this report by ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood. The best humanoid robot expert on Twitter is Cern Basher. His calculations are a hidden gem, this tweet has links to all his previous bot research.

As always, my posts reflect my personal opinions, are not related to any of the companies I am involved with, and are not meant as financial advice. Do your own research before you invest.

For years I used to be a 100% Bitcoin maximalist. I basically used all of my investment-related time to better understand Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem. I loved understanding the market dynamics better than most and made many good friends in the space over the years. But looking back I closed my eyes a bit for what else was happening in the investment world. It went so far that I didn’t even want to spend much time looking at the stock market (except for some Bitcoin-related stocks), because I thought nothing would outperform Bitcoin in the long run.

But things have changed a bit, and over the past couple of months my main focus has slowly shifted from crypto to AI. Of course I still follow everything that happens in the crypto space on a daily basis, but because I have less time available now that I also focus on other things, I don’t listen to all the podcasts anymore and I tend to stay away from the often toxic crypto discussions on Twitter.

Part of the reason is that the crypto space has changed a lot, there is a lot more of a focus on quick money now and I see scams everywhere. That is not my world. I also got a bit bored, I have seen everything so many times already. The Bitcoin drama (especially on Twitter) simply doesn’t excite me that much anymore. I know Bitcoin will keep going up long term and that we will likely see a huge bull market later this year, so I am not interested in all the people that tweet about panic selling because they don’t understand what’s happening in the market.

At the same time I realised that there may be other investments that could potentially do better than Bitcoin over the next couple of years. Since I got into Bitcoin I have seen a 500X price increase, but unless the USD gets inflated away that likely won’t happen again. Long term Bitcoin might do another 50X, but there are other investments (in crypto or outside crypto) that are easier to understand and that could generate similar returns. 

Artificial Intelligence

I have been looking at AI for years and even did some online AI courses about 7 years ago already. But those were quite technical (‘How do neural networks work?’ etc.) and they didn’t really open my eyes to the possibilities that I am seeing right now. Only since ChatGPT became mainstream in my world about 1.5 years ago, I realised what the potential opportunities were. So a couple of months ago I decided it was time to go much deeper into AI. I read technical papers and books, but mostly started using a lot of the existing Large Language Models to understand what they can (and can’t) do, and how they are different. I went to AI conferences and started to follow AI blogs, podcasts and YouTube experts. Because of this I simply didn’t have the time anymore to focus on Bitcoin as much as I did before.

Based on the knowledge I gained about AI I developed a new investment thesis, and I decided to take the summer off to mostly focus on that thesis and to start making investments. Over the past couple of weeks I have been spending 4-6 hours every day reading, writing and thinking about investment strategies for AI. I believe that when you go really deep and you combine it with in-depth knowledge of other industries, you will see things that others don’t see (yet). It worked for me in the past and I believe it will pay off this time as well.

Initial findings

My findings so far have been remarkably simple. In times of exponential change you can make enormous amounts of money if you invest early and don’t sell during market downturns (HODLing as Bitcoiners call it). This was the case with Internet companies, later with Bitcoin and I believe now with AI stocks. Anybody who had done his/her research and invested early in quality Internet stocks or in Bitcoin, could have easily turned $1 into at least $100. That is also the case with AI right now, maybe not 100X anymore because many stocks already made huge moves over the past year, but still sufficient to generate real wealth. I have selected a portfolio of about 10 companies that I am focusing on as investment targets and most of these are large public companies. 

Investing in AI start-ups?

Unlike in many other sectors, I believe that investing in AI start-ups is not the way to get rich, simply because in order to become successful they need a) lots of money, b) lots of chips and c) lots of power. Maybe start-ups can raise a lot of money, but getting access to chips will be a lot harder. Nvidia simply puts its largest customers (Google, Meta, OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon and Tesla) first because the demand for GPU chips is much higher than their chip production. Why sell to a small start-up while saying no to your best customers?

The access to power is another problem that start-ups will face once they start growing. There is a reason why all the large tech companies have their own data centers and power supply agreements: it’s the only way they can secure their future energy needs. Start-ups simply don’t have the resources to do that and so they will eventually hit a ceiling.

Another reason is that AI’s capabilities have been growing exponentially. That means that what a specialised AI company has built over a period of say a year, can all of a sudden be part of a new LLM update and so that company suddenly becomes obsolete. Each time OpenAI announces a new version of ChatGPT a number or AI companies are immediately put out of business, because ChatGPT can suddenly do what they have been building. I am not saying that no AI start-ups will be successful, but I believe that investing in selected public companies may be the easiest and most liquid way to make outsized returns over the coming years.

Ultra-cap companies

One of my conclusions is that AI will fairly soon lead to something that I call ultra-cap companies. My definition of an ultra-cap company is a business with a market cap of $10 trillion or more. Currently the largest company in the world is Microsoft with a market cap of $3.4 trillion, meaning it would have to grow by 300% to become an ultra-cap. Ultra-caps will become so big because of what I would call dehumanisation: taking away human jobs, with the monetary value of these jobs ending up as revenue for these future ultra-caps.

Emerging ultra-caps will set themselves apart by their ability to dominate new sectors. You already see that domination with companies like Nvidia, Amazon, Apple and Tesla. I expect that dehumanisation will for a large part happen by replacing human labour with humanoid robots. These humanoids will transform how we make things and perform tasks, and will create a massive new industry. I am now convinced that the robot industry that is starting to take shape will become the largest industry in the world.

My favourite potential ultra-cap: Tesla

My favourite AI company is Tesla, partly because I think they could end up dominating the humanoid robot industry, making $TSLA potentially the biggest company in the world (they are currently about 5 times smaller than Microsoft). Tesla could also outperform Bitcoin over the next couple of years. Maybe Bitcoin will do better than Tesla during the next 12-18 months, but after that Tesla will shine. I started investing in Tesla about 2 weeks ago (I posted it on Twitter) and the stock has already gone up over 25% since then. I have to admit that that timing was lucky, but I do expect the stock to go up a lot more soon.

The second part of this post will go into much more detail about why I think Tesla is a potential ultra-cap and why I believe most analysts don’t see it yet. I plan to write part 2 later this week.

Since the Bitcoin ETFs launched 2 months ago most of the price action seems to take place during weekdays. During weekends volatility is generally very different than during the week. That means that almost all of the price action in Bitcoin at the moment is caused by the ETF. I was thinking about this while having a coffee in my garden yesterday and then had realised that because all the volumes in the Bitcoin ETFs are public, you can model where the price will go using a Bitcoin ETF multiplier.

It’s of course a purely mathematical exercise, but it is useful because it shows the effect the ETFs will have on future prices. This model is only valid as long as the ETFs are the main price driver (or unless all other flows turn out to be highly correlated to the Bitcoin ETF, which is possible), but for the near future that seems to be the case. I would not dare to make long term predictions using this multiplier, but I think you can use it to predict when Bitcoin will hit $100K and what the price by year end will be.

The Bitcoin ETFs started on January 11 when the Bitcoin price was about $46,000. Today the Bitcoin price hovers around its all time high of about $70,000. That means the price went up by about $24,000. During this time there was a net inflow of about $9.5B into the Bitcoin ETFs. The Bitcoin market cap went up from $884 billon on the day before the ETFs launched to $1342 billion on Friday when the market closed, so an increase of $458B caused by an inflow of $9.5B, which results in a Bitcoin ETF multiplier of about 48.2.

This we can use to calculate when Bitcoin could hit $100K, because we know that at that price the market cap will be about $1990B. So in order to get to $100K the market cap will have to increase by $648B. With a multiplier of 48.2 that means $13.4B will have to flow into the ETF. The ETFs on average had a net inflow of $240M per day, meaning we will need about 55 trading days to get to $100K. That’s 11 weeks from today, so at current ETF net inflows I expect this to happen by mid- to late May. 

Of course this assumes ETF inflows stay stable, which is a conservative assumption. I expect inflows to go up once the Bitcoin price will be over the $70K hurdle, because of the hype that will start. At the same time I expect the outflows of the GBTC ETF to go down, meaning the net inflows will likely go up even more. Over the past 2 weeks the net ETF inflows were on average much higher than the 2 month average of $240M, meaning that if this continues we could actually reach $100K a earlier already. You just have to keep following the net inflows to get a feeling for this. Next to that we will have the Bitcoin halving coming up in just over a month, in which the Bitcoin supply will go down by 50%, making Bitcoin’s inflation lower than that of Gold. Lower supply means the multiplier should go up. Finally, very soon financial advisors can start selling the Bitcoin ETF to their clients, that could lead to another large pool of inflows that people are not expecting yet. 

So where will the Bitcoin price be at the end of the year? There are 205 trading days left on Wall Street in 2024 according to ChatGPT. The average inflow per trading day was $240 million, so ceteris paribus we will have total new inflows of roughly $50 billion until the end of the year. That means the market cap will increase by about $2470B by the end of the year, which implies a price increase of about $124,000. The current Bitcoin price is about $70,000, so this model leads to an expected Bitcoin price of $194,000 by the end of the year. 

A year-end number of around $200,000 is in line with my current expectations. The ETF has been much more successful than almost anyone had imagined, so a few weeks ago I increased the number I have in mind for the end of the year, but I had no data to back it up. I believe that once a hype starts the multiplier could increase: during a hype phase more people will want to buy Bitcoin, while less people would be willing to sell. However, the $100K could turn out to be a big psychological hurdle. Many people who don’t fully understand what drives the Bitcoin price (that’s probably most people who own Bitcoin…) may want to take some profit, so a lot of new inflows may be needed to offset that.

By the way, the $200K number will not be the top of this cycle, right now I think that will likely be a few months later around $250K. But a supercycle is also a (still very small) probability, in that case Bitcoin will keep on going up without any major bear markets like we had in the past.

This model is obviously a bit too simple for exact price predictions, but its simplicity makes it useful to see where markets are heading over the next couple of months. Just follow the Bitcoin ETF in- and outflows to get a better feel for the market. If big external events should take place that change the structure of the market, for example large corporates or nation states announcing that they start to invest in Bitcoin, this model won’t be useful anymore.

Nobody can predict the price, but for me this model is an interesting mental exercise. And whatever happens, there will be amazing times ahead this year for Bitcoin!