Last weekend I was in Stuttgart (Germany) for the first time in more than twenty years, after having lived there from 1996-2000. It was just a very short trip that was cut even shorter because of the snowy winter weather in most of Northern Europe. I left Daimler in 2002 to study Chinese and to become an entrepreneur in China, so the last time I really spent time in Stuttgart was probably around that time.
The reason for this trip was a 30-year reunion of the Mercedes-Benz Nachwuchsgruppe, the management trainee program that was my first job out of university. A program that changed my life, not only because I was by far the youngest person in the program (I was just 22 when I managed to get accepted into the program, most were at least 5 years older) and I learned so much from my fellow trainees who I felt were much more mature than me at the time, but also because after 3 months I was sent to Asia already (I helped to implement SAP at Mercedes-Benz Indonesia). After a few months in Asia I knew my future would eventually be there, and that turned out to be the case. Most of the Nachwuchsgruppe colleagues I had not seen in over 25 years, but because we spent quite some (intense) times together during the program, it felt like meeting with good friends very quickly again. We spent two days talking about the past and the future, walking through the wine hills above Stuttgart, having long dinners with nice wines, and of course visiting the Mercedes-Benz Museum.
It was genuinely nice seeing familiar faces with a shared history, lots of laughter of course (especially looking at some pictures from our group retreats and activities during that time) but also some deep discussions. In many ways it felt like stepping into a parallel universe where time had slowed down, and that is exactly what struck me.
A city where time moves slowly
Stuttgart has not changed much. Compared to places where I’ve spent significant time over the past decades like Beijing, Shanghai, Bangkok, Jakarta and Singapore, and even parts of Canada and the US, the contrast is stark. Those places reinvent themselves every few years, but Stuttgart feels almost frozen in time. There were some major projects going on, but some of these already started when I still lived there (“Stuttgart 21” for example, the project was announced in 1994 and is still not finished…).
That has a certain charm. It is calm, orderly, and comfortable, but it also feels static. Strangely, I even had the feeling that Stuttgart looked wealthier twenty-five years ago than it does now. That may partly be perception, because I was younger, poorer, and more easily impressed back then. Still, it didn’t feel like it was a dynamic place, or a place I would ever try to start a company. And that same feeling came back in my conversations.
Talking about Tesla in the heart of Mercedes land
Most of my former colleagues still work in the automotive industry. Several of them have worked for Mercedes-Benz or Daimler for close to thirty years. If anyone should have a sharp view on what is happening in the global car industry, it should be them. So naturally, the conversation drifted to Tesla and to Full Self-Driving (FSD). Tesla is a company I strongly believe in, in which I invested heavily and so I thought this trip could give me some new insights.
What surprised me most was not disagreement with what I said, but a lack of awareness. Yes, they know Tesla exists and yes, they know Tesla talks about self-driving. But almost nobody really knew how far Tesla FSD has come. One openly doubted that it works at all. None of them had tried Tesla FSD. Even more striking: a few genuinely believed that Chinese car manufacturers and even Mercedes’ own self-driving capabilities are at least as good, if not better.
This is not a criticism of them personally. These are smart people, serious professionals who are probably better at running a large company or a large business unit than me. But it made me realise something uncomfortable: if people working in automotive full-time do not understand what Tesla has built, how can we expect the general public to understand it?
The unthinkable future: not owning a car
I tried to explain my broader view to them: That Tesla is much more than just a car company, that FSD is a platform and not just a feature, and that Robotaxi will change the economics of transport completely. Most of them simply could not imagine a future where people would stop buying cars. Cars, especially in places like Stuttgart or Munich, are not just transportation. They are your identity, they determine your status and show off your personality. You are what you drive and that mindset is deeply ingrained.
I actually understand that resistance because I lived it myself when I worked in Stuttgart. Even though I was only in my mid-20s I bought a new Mercedes-Benz every year (I didn’t have a company car yet), and despite living on my own I also owned a second car (a bright yellow Italian convertible, I still miss it). It’s just what you do in Stuttgart if you have the money (Mercedes-Benz obviously paid good salaries). But despite understanding it well, I still believe it will break.
When AI starts taking jobs, which is something that has already started, owning a car will be one of the first big expenses people will try to eliminate. Why own a depreciating asset when you can summon transport on demand at a fraction of the cost? If Robotaxis are available everywhere for a quarter, or even an eighth of the true cost of ownership, behaviour will change. Maybe not overnight, but in my opinion it’s inevitable.
In cities like Stuttgart it will take longer. I very much understand that culture and identity matter, but economics always wins in the end, and Robotaxi will be about economics. I even explained that owning a Robotaxi could actually make you money: if you let the car taxi other people around while you work or sleep, you could easily make up to EUR 50,000 per year per car. And this does not even take into account the time you save while driving, because FSD will give you a virtual driver. I guess you have to see it to believe it.
Trucks, buses, and another blind spot
What worried me at least as much were conversations about Daimler Trucks, the separately listed truck and bus company. The risk from Tesla Semi, and more broadly from autonomous electric trucking, hardly seems to register. That’s likely partly because the Tesla Semi has not started mass production yet, but that will happen this year. They know about Tesla Semi of course, but don’t seem to take it serious. They are confident that Daimler’s solutions will be at least as good, but I am not so sure.
From my time at Daimler I remember that for commercial vehicles the cost per mile is much more important than for passenger cars. And that is where Tesla shines: the Semi truck will likely sell for about $150,000 in the US, while Daimler’s class 8 EV trucks will likely be in the $400,000 or more range. To make matters worse, the Tesla Semi has a 500 mile range, with just 310 miles for the best Daimler truck. And Tesla can charge up to 70% in 30 minutes, while it takes Daimler trucks 90 minutes to charge 80%. That is a huge difference if every minutes costs money.
This doesn’t even take fully self driving into account. The Tesla semi doesn’t have FSD yet (only advanced driver assist systems), but you can be pretty sure that if Tesla has FSD solved for passenger cars the FSD for trucks is coming very soon as well. Imagine truck fleets without drivers that can drive without having to stop every couple of hours because human drivers are getting fatigued or need sleep.
To me this is clear, for companies like Daimler Truck this is an existential threat, especially as production scales and cost curves bend down. Yet the sense of urgency just was not there. Again, not denial, but more like absence.
A warm company, but a changing one
Walking around, visiting old places, talking to people, I was reminded why Mercedes was such a nice company to work for. I remember the company really did feel like a warm bath, almost like a family. You felt you were part of something bigger.
That culture still exists to some extent, but it is clearly under pressure. The company is not doing as well as it used to. People are being asked to leave, and there are voluntary redundancy and early retirement packages. Good money, yes, but still a signal that the golden days are over.
Mercedes-Benz is changing, and not necessarily in a controlled way. My honest opinion after this weekend is that Mercedes may not survive in its current form in the long run. Possibly not even the medium run. They are still betting on internal combustion engines lasting longer and lobbying the EU for that, mostly because they are not able to get the costs of EVs down. They believe they can catch up in self-driving and seem to assume that the brand alone will save them. I think that is a dangerous combination.
The museum and the power of the past
One of the highlights of the weekend was the Mercedes-Benz Museum. It is genuinely spectacular: architecturally impressive, thoughtfully curated and in a way quite emotional, especially while looking at the cars that were in production when I worked there.
What makes it special is how it places the evolution of Mercedes-Benz vehicles alongside world history. You see photos of wars and of social change. You basically walk through time. Anyone visiting Stuttgart with even a mild interest in cars should go, it is world-class.
But there is something ironic about it too: it celebrates the past incredibly well. Almost too well…
Media, narrative, and selective reality
When I was in Stuttgart I bought a Auto Motor und Sport, a magazine I used to read religiously when I worked at Mercedes. I had not touched one in years, so I was quite curious about the articles. What do they say about Tesla or about EVs in general? The answer was quite revealing.
On the cover I saw a comparison between an “e-Tesla” and a Skoda diesel.The wording alone is interesting: “e-Tesla”, as if there are other kinds of Teslas. Subtle framing matters… Not sure why anyone who would consider buying a Tesla would consider a Skoda as well, let alone a diesel Skoda. The test itself was about towing caravans and other equipment. I didn’t read most of it but skipped to the end. And yes, unsurprisingly, Tesla “lost” that test.
Inside the magazine, there was an EV SUV comparison test. Five EV SUVs: An Opel, a Hyundai, a Kia, a Renault and a Volkwagen. I had to read that twice: no Tesla? Tesla’s Model Y is a SUV and it’s the best selling car in the whole world, including in China where it beat all domestic players (not many people at Mercedes knew that). In almost any country in the world, an EV test without Tesla would be unthinkable. In Germany, apparently, it is normal. However you want to frame it, this is not neutral reporting.
When I worked at Mercedes, everyone read this magazine, so I assume many still do. If this is the lens through which the industry sees the world, it explains a lot. The word brainwashing came to mind. German readers are not just uninformed, they are willingly misinformed.
Leaving Stuttgart with mixed feelings
I loved seeing my old friends, I loved walking through familiar streets, I loved the food and wines, I loved the museum. It was a truly great weekend and I will be back soon again, hopefully with a bit more time to see other friends and colleagues as well. But I also left with a sense of unease. There is a world moving very fast and another moving very slowly. Stuttgart and Mercedes-Benz still live largely in the second one. Tesla is not just a competitor, I see it as almost a different species. And the fact that so many smart, experienced people still do not see that may be the biggest risk of all.