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The Bitcoin Supercycle

I think I have never been more bullish about Bitcoin than I am right now. We are close to an all time high, we are up 60% in one month and there is not even a hype yet.

I now start to believe that we could even be at the start of a supercycle where new money keeps on flowing into the ETFs. Some reasons for this:

1) Funds suddenly started to announce that they will allocate to Bicoin ETF (Blackrock’s Strategic Income Opportunities Fund made an announcement this morning). This will be a constant flow of new money into the ETFs

2) The flows into the ETF are getting bigger, not smaller. The Bitcoin ETF was the most successful ETF launch ever.

3) Most financial advisors can’t allocate to the ETFs yet, but in a few weeks they can. Then the gates of money will reallly open up.

4) Microstrategy keeps on using leverage to buy more Bitcoin and they have one of the best performing stocks ever. Their main business is not even important anymore. At some point other CEOs will take a closer look at this and do something similar, it’s inevitable.

5) Since November 2023 a wallet has been adding on average about 100 BTC per day, the wallet now contains over 50,000 BTC. Nobody knows who this is, but speculation is a billionaire like Jeff Bezos. Once one billionaire starts doing this others will follow, that’s how the world works.

6) Nation states have not started to buy Bitcoin yet, at least not in meaningful quantities (El Salvador bought just a few million dollars). This is likely to change this cycle. If that happens it will lead other nation states to follow. The first ones to start buying large amounts of BTC could become the leading countries once the fiat system starts to collapse

7) Retail is still on the sidelines in this cycle, but once we hit an ATH media will start writing more about BTC and a new hype phase could start. That will lead to FOMO and in case of a supercycle the FOMO will keep going and lead to people taking money out of other asset classes and put it into BTC.

8) A supercycle will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once Bitcoin keeps going up for months without big dips (because of a constant inflow of new money) more people will bring up the concept of a supercycle. This will lead to more institutions taking a closer look and to allocate capital, meaning a supercycle is even more likely.

It is still very early in this cycle, so it’s not a meaningful prediction yet for me, but simply something you need to keep in the back of your mind. Right now I think there is chance of maybe 10% that this will happen and that chance is (very slowly) going up.

However, if it does it will change the existing world order. It will suck money out of the stock and bond markets, out of gold and other commodities, and even out of real estate (global housing prices could collapse). This will lead to BTC prices that we can’t even imagine today, potentially millions of dollars per BTC.

It will mint many billionaires and even some trillionaires, but maybe those fiat currency terms will not even be used anymore. The largest companies in the world will be Microstrategy and others that dared to follow them early on. And new (probably smaller) countries could become the leading countries in this world. The UAE and Singapore are likely contenders for this, but at this point any country could still get on this list. Interesting times ahead!

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