I wrote about autonomous vehicles a couple of times on this blog. Just over a year ago I wrote they might hit the road by 2019-2020, while in 2013 I still thought the first one would only be on the street by 2023. But exponential change tricked me once again, because Tesla’s standard technology seems to be ready to go.
The last hurdle will be politics, but I think that can suddenly go very fast as well. If not in the US than certainly in other countries, forcing the US to follow. Even in the US I believe a couple of states will likely be early leaders (in my opinion California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington), ‘forcing’ other states to follow. My estimate is now that the first states will allow full self-driving within 2 years from now.
The video below shows how well Tesla’s hardware package (installed in every new Tesla from now onwards, but not activated yet) works in neighborhood traffic, including many intersections with traffic lights or stop sign. To me this is still very impressive, but this will soon be the new normal for all of us. I look forward to not having to drive myself anymore!