Hatching Twitter

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Last week Twitter went public on the New York Stock Exchange and its IPO was considered a success with a large pop on the first day of trading. Because of US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rules there is always a quiet period around an IPO, meaning that companies can’t talk publicly about their business. ‘Coincidentally’ 2 days before the IPO the book “Hatching Twitter: A True Story of Money, Power, Friendship and Betrayel” came out. Of course I don’t believe in this kind of coincidences and think it was a smart marketing move by the company to create extra publicity for the stock.

I have been following Twitter from its early days and was an early adopter of the platform (originally with username @marcvanderchijs, later I changed to @chijs). Although Twitter has changed a lot over the years I am still on it, although not as much as in the early days. So when I saw that this book was coming out I pre-ordered it right away and finished it last night.

It’s a great read, but I did not realize that Twitter had been in such a mess for the first 5 years of its existence. Every start-up has its ups and downs, but at Twitter nobody seemed to be in control. The outside world did not really see this, but this book tells it all. It must have been hard to have been an investor in Twitter and see that your millions are at risk because the founders were simply incapable of running the company.

Before reading the book I sort of admired the Twitter founders Jack Dorsey, Biz Stone and Ev Williams. They ran a company called Odeo back in 2005, of which I was a user.  Odeo did something very similar to the original idea of Tudou: audio podcasts. I still remember reading about Odeo on the front page of the New York Times, about 2 months before the public launch of Tudou, thinking that they were on the wrong track. At that time Tudou had already made the switch away from audio to video, but Odeo still needed a year to figure out a new business model, which turned out to be Twitter.

I especially liked Jack Dorsey, he seemed to be a second Steve Jobs. However, after reading Hatching Twitter I realize he would like to be the new Steve Jobs (and therefore he copies many things that Steve did), but he is far from it. He almost ran the company into the ground, did not listen to his co-founders and later successfully managed to get his former friend Ev fired as CEO. Although getting Ev fired may have been a good thing (Ev also wasn’t the best person to run a company like Twitter), generally Jack seems to be an unfriendly, egoistic person. But he is a new billionaire now, so he probably doesn’t care.

It’s actually a miracle that Twitter survived its first years. Only because the product was so good and grew virally they managed to stay alive, and to eventually grow into one of the largest web companies in the world. This book shows the inside story about the company: how did the founders get the idea, how did they get started and how did they get to where they are now.

I loved to read it and would recommend it to anybody who is involved in an Internet start-up or who would like to do one one day. It’s a 300-page book that’s easy to read, and you can probably finish it in one evening.

Bitcoin going up too fast?

Bitcoin crashes up

Update: the predicted crash happened about 12 hours after I wrote this post, see details at end of post.

Since I started following Bitcoin the price has been very volatile but mainly been rising. If you had bought Bitcoin around the time I started blogging about it you would have made a very decent return (360% in less than 5 months), however most of these gains were realized over the past couple of weeks and especially the past couple of days.

Bitcoin price Oct. 12-Nov. 8

One month ago Bitcoin was still at $135, a week ago the rate was around $220, but right now it hovers around $370. It’s great when you plan to make a quick buck, but I see Bitcoin as a long-term investment (or speculation as some call it) in a crypto currency that has the potential to change the world of finance. In that case such a fast increase is not desirable, because it looks like a hype. And I believe what we are seeing right now is a hype, many people seem to be buying in the hope of higher prices.

I believe that in about 2 years from now Bitcoin will be at $1000, based on fixed supply and increased demand because of more transactions taking place in Bitcoin. But I hope we won’t hit that in a few months already. At the current rate of increase (sometimes over 20% per day) I feel like a crash is imminent.

Most current demand seems to be from China, which explains why Bitcoin goes up most during daytime in East Asia. A lot of people don’t fully understand the long term potential of Bitcoin and will likely try to sell to get out of it, making the crash even worse. I won’t sell and will try to buy at the low end of the crash, which should be higher than the last flash crash that ended at lows of $185. But I still hope that it won’t happen because it will undermine the confidence people have in the currency.

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So on the one hand I am extremely bullish on Bitcoin, but in the short run I feel the high price may not be sustainable yet. Maybe (hopefully) I am wrong, and the current demand is really based on more people buying with the intention of holding the currency for a long time or to use it for transactions. But if not I would not be surprised to see a flash crash happening soon.

I am normally very bullish, but the current pattern is scary and it reminds me patterns that I learned while studying economics of what happened during the Tulip Bulb rally in 1637 or right before the Dow Jones crash in September 1929. Bitcoin is fundamentally different from what happened there, but it seems that ‘dumb money’ is now entering the market, just like it happened during those times. Time will tell, and if it happens I will of course blog about it.

Update: a crash indeed happened about 12 hours after I wrote my post. At first the drop was quite scary:

Bitcoin flash crash (Nov. 9, 2013)

But I hoped the market would find a bottom and it did indeed. Two days later the market is almost back where it came from:

Flash crash and recovery!

The growth is still too fast, but at least some of the speculators have probably left the market.